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Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!ames!vsi1!daver!mips!mash
From: mash@mips.COM (John Mashey)
Newsgroups: comp.arch,comp.graphics
Subject: Re: i82786 R.I.P. ?
Message-ID: <22199@winchester.mips.COM>
Date: 24 Jun 89 17:50:31 GMT
References: <1987@ubu.warwick.UUCP>
Reply-To: mash@mips.COM (John Mashey)
Organization: MIPS Computer Systems, Inc.
Lines: 39

In article <1987@ubu.warwick.UUCP> arthur@flame.warwick.ac.uk (John Vaudin) writes:

>If this rumour is true then I am interested what implications this has to the
>current RISC market. If manufacturers are going to stop production of
>chips because sales are not as high as hoped for then what
>happens if the 29000/88000/i860/MIPS/SPARC/.... etc. doesn't sell, will
>the manufacturers keep production going?? There are so many RISCs on the
>market at present that they can't all be successful, so 
>does this mean that unless you back the winning horse you might be left 
>with no supply at all ????

This is actually a different situation, because of the software implications,
i.e., devices intended to be reprogrammable devices visible to users:
	a) Not only need to be built for a (reasonably) long time, but
	b) Had better have followon products that are compatible
Hence, choice of a CPU is an even higher-stakes game than choice of
a peripheral chip.  When a company picks an architecture, it's probably
making a 5-10-year committment, and so they think hard about it.
These things come in cycles: in the early 80's, there was a fight
amongst the various CISC chips, and it took a few years for things
to settle out; as you note, the current fight amongst RISCs is similar.
Anybody has a choice, whose extrema are:
	a) Make a very early choice, hoping to get ahead of the competition,
		taking the risks that the parts may not be the long-term
		winners, or even, may be withdrawn from the market,
		which happens, even sometimes from large companies.
		Not every part described in the trade press is actually built.
	b) Make a very late choice, where the winners are obvious,
		but there is no technology advantage over the competition.

I've used the analogy before, but it bears repeating: doing a),  that
is,  picking your CPU early in the game, is like playing Russian Roulette
where you pick your CPU, pull the trigger, and then wait 1-2 years to
see if you've blown your brains out.
-- 
-john mashey	DISCLAIMER: <generic disclaimer, I speak for me only, etc>
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