Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!bgsuvax!klopfens
From: klopfens@bgsuvax.UUCP (Bruce Klopfenstein)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: Delphi Method
Message-ID: <4659@bgsuvax.UUCP>
Date: 7 Jul 89 00:54:05 GMT
References: <114039@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>
Organization: Bowling Green State University B.G., Oh.
Lines: 28

From article <114039@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>, by raburns%ecotopia@Sun.COM (Randy Burns):
> 
> I've read some interesting things about using the Delphi Method to 
> make forecasts.  My understanding is that a group of people are 
> asked a question (often about a predicted event unknown to them).
> The group then votes about what they predict the outcome will be,
> repeating until the group doesn't change its position from the 
> previous vote.  
> 
> I've seen this topic dealt with in some novels (e.g. Shockwave
I have never conducted a Delphi study, but I have read about them.
Delphi was developd, I believe, at the RAND Corporation in the 1960s.
It's especially useful for making predictions about technology and
experts who have some direct knowledge about the technology under study
as well as the likelihood for breakthroughs are asked to make forecasts.
A consensus is normally reached, but not necessary.  If an expert or more
do not go along with the consensus, then that is reflected in the ultimate
forecast.

Bruce Klopfenstein
Bowling Green State University

-- 
Dr. Bruce C. Klopfenstein      |  klopfens@andy.bgsu.edu
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