Path: utzoo!utgpu!attcan!uunet!ginosko!ctrsol!sdsu!usc!polyslo!decwrl!amdcad!military
From: well!nagle@lll-crg.llnl.gov (John Nagle)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: ARROW ABMM
Message-ID: <26725@amdcad.AMD.COM>
Date: 12 Aug 89 07:36:24 GMT
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From: well!nagle@lll-crg.llnl.gov (John Nagle)

     It would make a lot of sense for the Israelis to develop a defense
against short and medium range surface-to-surface missiles.  Such
missiles are becoming widely available; China sells them, among other
sources.  A range of a few hundred miles is enough for most Middle Eastern
countries, since the enemy is no further away than that.  (They can't go
for the Great Satan this way until they get a longer-range missile.)
The next Middle Eastern war will probably involve some of these missiles.
Nuclear warheads are unlikely (although not impossible), but chemical
or biological warheads are a distinct possibility.

     Missile technology is becoming widespread.  Fundamentally, missiles
are no more complex than modern aircraft, and an aircraft industry
capable of building a decent fighter should be able to build an IRBM
or ICBM without serious difficulty.  Hitting a hardened silo might be
tough, and building a MIRV might take extensive work.  But a vanilla
IRBM/ICBM, comparable to a '60s vintage US missile, is within the easy
reach of any country that can build a decent military aircraft.  

					John Nagle