Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!ginosko!gem.mps.ohio-state.edu!apple!bionet!ames!amdcad!military From: military@cbnews.ATT.COM (William B. Thacker) Newsgroups: sci.military Subject: Re: Future of the Military Message-ID: <27449@amdcad.AMD.COM> Date: 23 Sep 89 18:45:57 GMT References: <27406@amdcad.AMD.COM> Sender: cdr@amdcad.AMD.COM Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories Lines: 52 Approved: military@amdcad.amd.com From: military@cbnews.ATT.COM (William B. Thacker) In article <27406@amdcad.AMD.COM> wmartin@STL-06SIMA.ARMY.MIL (Will Martin) writes: >What if it all is for real? What if there is a fundamental alteration in >the USSR's government and attitude, and this persists beyond Gorbachev's >period in power? What if things really do change for the better? > >The only other >possible enemies end up being the Martians or the visitors from Antares >that may pop up next week or next century... I'd say that you can bet that nuclear arms will be kept for just such a contingency; also, to guard against a rapid change in the political situation, and third-world activities. >. The stock market would fall to a tiny >fraction of where it is now, which would probably wipe out the retirement >savings for a large percentage of the people who would otherwise be able >to live on those resources (so the "luck" I mentioned isn't all good :-(). I think this is an overestimate. Consider that the force reduction will no doubt be gradual, over a period of at least 5-10 years; a build-down, if you will. Neither the US nor the USSR will wish to remain undefended, and so will develop a last gasp of new weapons; weapons requiring less maintenance and manpower, designed for the utmost in performance per unit. Too, it would be likely that these would be upgraded for many years. I doubt the DoD budget would ever drop below 25% of its current level, even once all the retirees on the budget had passed on. Further, that money won't simply disappear; it will be re-invested in the economy. Taxes may drop, or benefits increase; either way, people will be spending more cash on consumer goods. General Dynamics might start making VCR's and mopeds, but there will still be work to be done. Finally, I would suspect that the US and USSR would cooperate in space, and a large portion of the ex-Defense budget tagged for that venture. Many employees at Rockwell and Lockheed might never notice the change. There are those who claim that money spent on the military is actually less efficient than that spent in consumer areas; we could even see an *upsurge* in the economy. As a sidelight, science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle's future universe is based on a US/Soviet "Co-dominium", where those two nations dominate the world. It is rather martial in nature, and very conservative in politics, like all Pournelle's stuff, but you might find it interesting. -- Bill Thacker Moderator, sci.military military-request@att.att.com (614) 860-5294 Send submissions to military@att.att.com