Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!uwm.edu!gem.mps.ohio-state.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!att!cbnews!military From: amdcad!mjt@mcnc.org (Michael Tighe) Newsgroups: sci.military Subject: 80:20 ratio Message-ID: <10409@cbnews.ATT.COM> Date: 20 Oct 89 01:42:08 GMT Sender: military@cbnews.ATT.COM Lines: 34 Approved: military@att.att.com From: Michael Tighe >From: amdcad!tanner@dssmv1.mpr.ca (Tim Tanner) In sci.military Fri, 15 Sep, 1989, article 2173 miket@brspyrl.brs.com (Mike Trout) writes: >>80% of all airplanes that are shot down by other airplanes never detect >>their attackers. This 80%-20% ratio has held fairly constant from World War >>I up to the present. >I am curious where this statistic came from. It seems likely that it is >true (it is much easier to shoot down an unsuspecting victim). However I >doubt that it is as true today as it was in WW1 and WW2. With all the >fancy equipment on planes today, the least you can hope for is to detect >your attacker. I tend to discount it also. It is diffcult to prove, since the person you would like to ask is usually deceased. Perhaps it was true at sometime. I would think that most pilots know they are under attack, even if they cannot do anything to get out of it, and even if they only have a few seconds warning. Looking at the most recent engagements the US has had, all of the Libyan pilots knew they were being attacked. They were not surprised. Although poor tactics on their part ensured a quick splash, they knew it was coming. I cannot recall any statistics for Falklands, and in the Bekaa Valley, several of the kills the Israelis recorded were done without firing a shot. The enemy punched out as soon as he knew he was being locked on by radar. So they knew they were under atack also. ------------- Michael Tighe Internet: mjt@ncsc.org