Path: utzoo!attcan!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!uwm.edu!ux1.cso.uiuc.edu!tank!eecae!cps3xx!usenet
From: usenet@cps3xx.UUCP (Usenet file owner)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.atari.8bit
Subject: Re: 8) Research Help (8
Summary: 8-bit life cycle
Message-ID: <5072@cps3xx.UUCP>
Date: 22 Oct 89 18:25:18 GMT
References: <115200037@uxa.cso.uiuc.edu> <8135@microsoft.UUCP>
Reply-To: conklin@frith.UUCP (Terry Conklin)
Organization: Engineering, Michigan State University, E. Lansing
Lines: 103


You would be hard pressed to call that posting "offensive," but
I might call it less than totally accurate. We are lacking a
definition of "dead" here. Without knowing the question, how
can you possibly answer it?
 
There are a couple "kinds" of dead. And the 8-bit is not 
universally dead by all definitions.

The machine itself is certainly not dead. The machine runs,
runs pretty well. I challenge any statement that says the 8-bit
is out-of-date. The Atari 8-bit, designed in '78 or not, can
still produce graphics beyond the capabilities of the current
IBM standard, EGA. (It'd be VGA, but it's too steep.) With EGA
being the graphics standard that MOST computers have (by raw
numbers) I dutifully define that as "current" graphics. VGA is
NOT what the bulk of people have, though getting there, and
would be "current plus." Having lived most personally with
EGA for a long time, it's got an edge on 8-bit graphics, but
they are comparable in many ways. When everyone has VGA or an
Amiga, then it will be out of date. Certainly, we are on the
edge of that time. 10+ years for any given design is pretty
good though!
 
The 8-bit software is dated by virtue mostly of memory size.
There is a real extended memory standard for 8-bits now, but
it's nt being taken advantage of for the most part. The 8-bit
DOES have a vast array of language options, utilities, and 
compilers - to it's credit. But I wouldn't look for too much
ADA or C++ work on the 8-bit, indeed, a functional C compiler
would be a step up. Too bad they went with a 128-char set.
 
If anything is "dead" on the 8-bit, it's the market. We have
reached the point where I'm interested in knowing if anything
at all is released for new sale. The entire market is NOT
dead though. You can still get parts and supplies from several
different suppliers. The used 8-bit market is rolling right
along. Shareware software is cranking out stuff the likes of 
which we only wished for a few years ago. Bob Puff is some
kind of junkie! And in the vacumn of commercial software, a
lot of otherwise quiet places have felt free to release things.

A signifigant indicator of the state of a machine, I feel, is
the demise of the magazines. The magazine market for a given
computer is usually the best idea of how it's doing. In the
8-bit case, though, it's a bit strange, because even as the
last magazine dies on the stands, the electronic Z-Mag is so
successful that they are looking to go to a printed format!
 
Another signifigant indicator of the state of a machine is
what the ORIGINAL producer is doing. And in this case, nothing.
Credit should be given for late Atari products like the XEP-80
which certainly are going to be hard pressed to make back the
money it cost to develop them. Another big credit goes to Atari
for the XE game system which, whether they realize it or not,
was the best -possible- thing Atari could have done for 8-bit
owners - creating a new, captive market of non-pirate compatibles.
As even diehards begin bashing the company for its vile abuses
of customers, it's important to remember that rarely is anything
wholly good or wholly bad, and these are some damm big
concessions to the 8-bits. However, it's historically true that
when the original company stops working on it's product, it
is a toll of the bell, and a cold wind blows through the
3-rd party support industry, no matter how big. Even the IBM PC's
shuddered when IBM dropped all PC sales.
 
The thing to remember about machine "death" is that it is not
an instant or atomic process. It's a sliding scale of the
environment. From the peak of new products and excitement,
(I STILL think they could sell 1450 XLDs in numbers, even now)
to the waning days where you rarely find another person who has
one, it's a slow continuous process. How far along is "dead?"
There's no such thing. The question YOU need to ask is how far
along can you go? The ultimate factor is always the machine -
and it NEVER stops being able to compute. But can YOU handle
the slowly declining support (sales, software, repairs, tech)
by yourself?
 
For someone like myself, or Ken Sumrall, or several of the
people online here, the answer is "forever." There will
never be a machine "death" because none of us -really- needs
any external support. If there are enough of these self-
supportive people (who naturally help others) they form a 
"core" by which the other no-so-self-supportive people can 
continue indefinately. Indefinately? Well, the TRS-80 users 
were almost ALL techincal and thus the Mod I/IIIs still have
active channels, even though the market "died" outright 
MANY years ago. It seems to me that A) given the suprising
number of early technical people from the original 400/800
days, B.) the number of owners over three generations of 
machines and C) Z-Mag, a well spread, quality channel of 
news and info, that the "support environment" will die
VERY slowly, indeed. And add all these new Shareware titles
on top of that, it may even hold steady for a time.
 
Sorry about the book! Sheez, didn't realize. Can I turn this
in and get some course credit?.
 
Terry Conklin
conklin@egr.msu.edu
uunet!frith!conklin
The Club  - (517) 372-3133
The Club II (313) 334-8877  <-- 8-bit files, Z-Mag, stuf