Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!att!cbnews!military
From: stuart@rennet.cs.wisc.edu (Stuart Friedberg)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: U-2 shootdown--not a shootdown? (was Re: B-70)
Message-ID: <10803@cbnews.ATT.COM>
Date: 31 Oct 89 04:06:57 GMT
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From: stuart@rennet.cs.wisc.edu (Stuart Friedberg)

Christopher K Davis writes:
>Robert Heinlein [...] noted that a shootdown from full U-2 altitude,
>at full U-2 speeds, would most likely turn the aircraft into Christmas
>tree tinsel (E = mv**2, and all that).

Since I haven't seen an authorative statement about the incident yet,
I'd like to add a few (nonauthorative) notes to this.

First, the U-2 is neither a fast nor an especially maneuverable
aircraft (at altitude).  Its virtue is long endurance at high
altitudes.  I would very roughly estimate that a U-2 mission flies at
about 350 to 400 knots.  Don't confuse U-2's with SR-71's.

Second, the SA-2, like most if not all surface-to-air missiles of its
vintage, is not intended to make a direct hit.  The warhead is designed
to generate a great deal of shrapnel, and is fused by radar proximity
or altitude (timer).  This means that there is a large volume in which
an aircraft may be fatally damaged, but not shredded.  All it takes is
one chunk of scrap metal through hydraulic or fuel lines.

Third, although I can't find my sources right now, Powers' U-2 had
definitely suffered some kind of mechanical failure.  He was forced to
reduce altitude significantly.  (I believe it was to restart engines.)
His aircraft was additionally (and terminally) incapacitated by an U-2
burst.

Fourth, although the SA-2 is a marginal weapon system, and U-2 missions
over the Soviet Union  flew well above the *effective* range (altitude)
of the system, the aircraft were definitely within the *maximum* range
of the missile.  Even if Powers had not reduce altitude, there was
still a definite possibility that the Soviets could have hit him if
they had fired enough missiles in his general direction.  (Note that at
least one, and I think two, U-2's were shot down over Cuba by SA-2's.
However, I think they were operating at lower altitudes.)  The U-2 is
barely capable of out-maneuvering an SA-2 at that altitude, but that
assumes that the course of the missile could be accurately predicted
and the pilot had nothing better to do (like get on with the mission).

Stu Friedberg  (stuart@cs.wisc.edu)