Path: utzoo!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!ucbvax!hplabs!pyramid!athertn!joshua
From: joshua@athertn.Atherton.COM (Flame Bait)
Newsgroups: comp.software-eng
Subject: Predicting Software Ship Dates
Message-ID: <15030@joshua.athertn.Atherton.COM>
Date: 30 Nov 89 03:37:54 GMT
Reply-To: joshua@Atherton.COM (Flame Bait)
Organization: Atherton Technology, Sunnyvale, CA
Lines: 36

I have a simple question, I'm looking for a simple answer :-)

Given any information you want, predict when a software project will have
fewer than N bugs, and make the prediction after "new" coding has stopped,
but while debugging and testing is still going on.

The situation in detail:
I'm about to start a small (1 person, a few months) project; I know that
at some point in the future, I'm going to have the whole thing written,
and I'll be testing it (with help from QA) and fixing bugs as fast as I 
can, but I will not be adding functionality.  During this process (which
I expect will take at least half of the coding time) my boss will want 
to know when it will be ready.  I will (of course) have no idea.  I might
be working on the last bug, or the 100th to last bug.  The ship criteria
will be something like "no class 0 bugs, max of one class 1 bug, and three
class 2 bugs".  Since the project hasn't started yet, I can set up to 
keep track of any statistics you might want.  

What I'm looking for (besides the holy grail) is a program which looks at 
the bugs per hour testing, or something similar, and predicts when the bugs 
will drop below our ship criteria.  Obviously, I can eyeball the curve and
make a guess, but I'd like something with some empirical evidence behind
it.

Lastly, I'm mathmatically illiterate, so I'd like the answer in the form
of a computer program, not any complicated math.  I do own NUMERICAL 
RECIPES (Press et al.), so an answer can reference that.  

Please post your answers.  I want to see other peoples comments on the 
presented solutions.  

Joshua Levy
--------                Quote: "Hofstaedter's Law:  It always takes longer than
Addresses:                      you expect, even if you take into account 
joshua@atherton.com             Hofstaedter's Law"
{decwrl|sun|hpda}!athertn!joshua    work:(408)734-9822    home:(415)968-3718


Brought to you by Super Global Mega Corp .com