Path: utzoo!attcan!utgpu!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!mailrus!ames!haven!grebyn!macom1!larry
From: larry@macom1.UUCP (Larry Taborek)
Newsgroups: comp.unix.wizards
Subject: Re: FCC doing it again...
Message-ID: <4979@macom1.UUCP>
Date: 1 Dec 89 14:18:25 GMT
References: <128505@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>
Organization: CENTEL Federal Systems, Reston, VA. 22091-1506
Lines: 62

From article <128505@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>, by henry%angel@Sun.COM (Henry McGilton -- Software Products):
> This thread doesn't belong in this forum, but while it's
> here, this is my contribution:

[much deleted]
 
> What does this lecture have to do with modems?  Simply
> this: a user of a modem is perturbing the traffic patterns
> in a big way.  The number of calls made are probably about
> the same, but the holding time of a call is now orders of
> magnitude more than the average projected holding time.
> The huge increase in use of personal computers and modems
> have created a singularity in the traffic patterns for
> telephone calls.  The operating companies simply cannot
> respond to this increased demand in any reasonable amount
> of time given the current technology.  Expect the situation
> to get worse for the next ten years or so.  To build the
> extra capacity before they are ready to do so, to handle
> the increased traffic that'll be there before they expected
> it, they'll need more cash to build the next generation of
> exchanges. Therefore, they must charge more money now.  I
> suspect, by the way, that it's not the FCC that initiated
> the rate increases.  I suspect that the operating companies
> reacted to the bind they're finding themselves in, and went
> to the FCC asking for a rate increase.

I don't buy this argument for a number of reasons.  First off,
the phone companies all have some surge capacity built in.  If
that extra capacity is being gobbled up faster then anticipated
by modems which have longer connect times, then the phone
companies revenues are also telescoping upwards.  In short,
although I agree with you that the phone company costs are
escalating because of modems, I also see that the phone company
revenues are escalating because of modems.

The reason that I see for the request is somthing like this, the
phone company builds a phone exchange and based on traffic
patterns projects a upgrade cost and replacement cost into
budgets years down the road.  Now, unexpectedly, modems cause a
higher connect time, and the phone system will require extra
money or an accelerated upgrade and replacement schedule.  But
they also get additional revenues that were unplanned.  So what
do they do?  Do they apply a portion of the increased revenues
against the new costs?  -NO-.  They give a stock dividend to
their stock holders, give themselves bonuses and a pat on the
back, and go to the FCC complaining about modem use.

Note that this cycle is unlike the outages caused in the San
Francisco Earth Quake, as this is an unplanned increase in
demand that can span years or even decades, and that the phone
companies CAN respond to adaquately.

As a second reason, much of the heavy modem traffic is done at
night, where the phone companies have no problem handling the
demand.

Hope this helps...
-- 
Larry Taborek	..!uunet!grebyn!macom1!larry	Centel Federal Systems
		larry@macom1.UUCP		11400 Commerce Park Drive
						Reston, VA 22091-1506
My views do not reflect those of Centel		703-758-7000