Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!lll-winken!decwrl!shelby!rutgers!bellcore!pyuxp!pyuxe!nvuxr!ccw
From: ccw@nvuxr.UUCP (christopher wood)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: prognostications about expert systems
Message-ID: <1582@nvuxr.UUCP>
Date: 15 Mar 90 17:53:27 GMT
References: <2392@kodak.UUCP>
Reply-To: ccw@nvuxr.UUCP (22456-christopher wood)
Distribution: na
Organization: Bell Communications Research, NJ
Lines: 41

In article <2392@kodak.UUCP> doering@kodak.com (Paul F. Doering) writes:
>Chris Wood and J Storrs Hall are engaged here in a dialog about whether the
>imposition of rules -- represented in one form by AI -- is eliminating the
>prerogative of humans to make judgments. (Well, Wood and Hall may not totally
>agree on exactly the subject of their dialog, but I think that's what Hall is
>trying to discuss. :-)  )

Good summary.  I'll agree.

[comments on rules not working well trimmed.  the line counter does
encourage this behavior; but we've all seen the other reaction - line
counter fodder.]

>I concur with Wood's observation that computers are freeing humans from
>drudgery and enabling us to address loftier concerns. Hall agrees but worries
>about intrusion on even those more human tasks. Rest easy. We're good at
>defending our turf; it just takes us a while to rise up.

Thanks for concurring, but I think your complacency may be a little
premature.  Change is always directed at making the valuable less so;
the value provided by those applying the old methods are threatened when
new methods come along that do it for less.  A weaver put out of work by
an automatic loom.  Luddites.  Farmers in the great depression kicked
off their farms by the boss with a tractor.  Those displaced by a new
technology will defend their turf, cause difficulties, and eventually be
passed by.  Middle managers may be the next victims of technology.

The only moral I can think of is: get used to change.  Don't specialize
in any field too much; specialize in BECOMING A SPECIALIST in new
fields.  Don't grow roots, or become too attached to what you do.


> =========================   ============================================
>  Paul Doering (for self)     Why must they force their particular hell,  
>     doering@kodak.com                    their particular Devil, on us?  
> =========================   ==================== -Carl Sandburg =======


-- 
Chris Wood     Bellcore     ...!bellcore!nvuxr!ccw
                         or nvuxr!ccw@bellcore.bellcore.com