Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!clyde.concordia.ca!uunet!atexnet!dana
From: dana@atexnet.UUCP (Dana Burns)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: Technology Forecasting
Message-ID: <649@mozart.atexnet.UUCP>
Date: 15 Mar 90 14:16:25 GMT
References: <5462@ists.ists.ca> <84.25e65edf@ubvms.cc.buffalo.edu> <34918@cci632.UUCP>
Reply-To: dana@mozart.UUCP (Dana Burns)
Distribution: na
Organization: EPPS (A Kodak Co.),Bedford,MA
Lines: 61

In article <34918@cci632.UUCP> jct@ccird3.UUCP (John Thompson) writes:
>In article <84.25e65edf@ubvms.cc.buffalo.edu> v291nhtp@ubvms.cc.buffalo.edu writes:
>>;^) If the idea is good enough, and is "right," then people will spontaneously 
>>adopt it and discard the older, less efficient way. The key is bringing said 
>>idea to fruition.
>
>How do you define "right"? My obsevation of most new ideas is that most
>people will resist them, not on any "logical" ( a word I always find to
>be suspect ) grounds, but basically for the following two reasons :
>
>	1) It's not the way our ancestors/fathers/mentors did it.
>	2) I don't understand it, therefore it won't work "for me".
>
>Efficency has little to do with it. It seems to be that the older idea is
>"time proven" therefore comfortable. All real advances in this world (IMO)
>seem to have come about because one person or group has had a vision of
>a "better" way and forced the world to listen.
>

   I don't usually post, but here's a story you guys might enjoy:

   Someone I know went to work for this shoe-machine company. Now,
shoes manufacturing is a very complex business due to all the sizes
and shapes etc... It is also an industry steeped in tradition, and as
an example, my old coworker related this tidbit:

   Seems there is this mechanical device that traces a prototype
onto patterns from which tooling is made for the manufacturing
equipment. It was invented in the 1800's and is still in use.

   This shoe-machine company has created a computer-system for
automatically generating these patterns from a CAD system. All the
patterns can be generated based on these exact tables and the
system works great. Just got to sell it now.

   Well, it turns out that the old mechanical thing (wish I could
remember what they call it...) has some inaccuracies in it due to
mechanical joint limitations (or some such ...). To assess the
new computer-based system (which lack the inaccuracies), they
compare the patterns generated TO THE ONES GENERATED BY THE OLD
MECHANICAL THINGY! When they don't match very well, they say:
"this new fangled thing doesn't work for sh*t". When the sales
people try to explain that the problem lies in the mechanical
inaccuracies, they get: "son, this things been doing the job for
A HUNDRED YEARS!" and they get thrown out the door.

   So, back to the drawing board. Now the company is spending
mucho development studying the old thingy, so they can build the
same inaccuracies into their computer.


            ////                |Dana Burns <dana@bottle.atexnet.UUCP>
------HHHHHHHHHH                |ATEX Publishing Systems
            \\\\                |"opinions mine"


-- 

            ////		|Dana Burns <dana@bottle.atexnet.UUCP>
------HHHHHHHHHH		|ATEX Publishing Systems
            \\\\		|"opinions mine"