Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!cs.utexas.edu!rutgers!mcnc!rti!bcw
From: bcw@rti.rti.org (Bruce Wright)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.ibm.pc
Subject: Re: Lotto numbers
Summary: Lotto strategies (!)
Message-ID: <3682@rtifs1.UUCP>
Date: 22 Mar 90 06:45:56 GMT
References: <9240023@hpmcaa.mcm.hp.com> <7111@tekgvs.LABS.TEK.COM>
Organization: Research Triangle Institute, RTP, NC
Lines: 44

In article <7111@tekgvs.LABS.TEK.COM>, toma@tekgvs.LABS.TEK.COM (Tom Almy) writes:
> [A lotto player] writes:
> >Does anyone know if lotto numbers are available anywhere in electronic
> >form? can be downloaded?
> >Any info on where to get lotto drawn numbers or lotto related
> >programs is greatly appreciated.
> 
> Considering that lotto games pay roughly 50 cents on the dollar, and that 
> the numbers are picked at random (previous numbers do *not* affect the
> results), you should post this to alt.stupidity. :-(

It appears that you are confusing the expectation of picking a winning
number in a Lotto game with the expected rate of return.  They are not
at all the same, and if you think they are then maybe _you_ should
take a course in statistics (!).

It's true that (at least most) Lotto games are set up to make all
possible numbers have an equal probability of payoff.  But this is
not at all the same as all players having equal expected winnings!
For example, if some numbers are picked by more people than others,
than picking those numbers means you must share the winnings with
the other winners (at least in many Lotto games).  An analysis of
the pattern of numbers picked by other players can allow a player
to increase his expected winnings by picking rarely used numbers.

Of course, Lotto games are also set up so that this strategy still
doesn't allow you to have a positive expected return!

I _don't_ play the Lotto games because I understand how low the
probabilities are ... but some people who _do_ understand the
probabilities still play it because it gives them a bit of excitement
& I'm certainly not going to fault them for that (as long as it
doesn't become an obsession).

And as far as that goes, no I don't know about any Lotto software,
though even if I did I wouldn't trust it (see above.  The most
profitable idea in trying to maximize Lotto winnings is probably
going to be trying to second-guess the other Lotto players).

Let's get back to PC's, OK?

						Bruce C. Wright

Your local curmudgeon.