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From: yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi)
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Re: Future Work
Message-ID: <1990Apr12.203832.17512@cs.rochester.edu>
Date: 12 Apr 90 20:38:32 GMT
References: <9004101958.AA23998@stdc.jhuapl.edu> <1472@gara.une.oz.au>
Reply-To: yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi)
Organization: University of Rochester Computer Science Department
Lines: 47

In article <1472@gara.une.oz.au> pmorriso@gara.une.oz.au (Perry Morrison MATH) writes:
>In article <9004101958.AA23998@stdc.jhuapl.edu>, jwm@STDC.JHUAPL.EDU (Jim Meritt) writes:
>> EVERYONE on this list has access to more raw power, more information,
>> better food, better housing, more comfort,....  than any of the Roman
>> emperors.  

>	Furthermore, there is no doubt that the resources that support these
>things are taken from the third world at ripoff prices.

"Ripoff prices" like those that made Kuwait one of the richest nations
in the world during the 70s?  (If any third worlders can blame any
Westerners for their economic condition, it should be the Arabs
blaming the conservationists...)

>	I'm not suggesting a cataclysmic end to this situation, but there is
>no doubt that the hugely wasteful techological lifestyle that we lead in the
>West has to be moderated.

No doubt :-) many people felt the same way during the last industrial
revolution, but given the all of the sweeping technological advances
likely in the _next_ industrial revolution, your statement is highly
doubtful at the very least.

More efficient technology will be developed, so in that sense, the
proportion of wasted energy/resources will be likely to be reduced --
in the sense that more production will be possible with a small amount
of energy/raw materials.  But if you are making an argument for a
reduction in the standard of living, I think this argument is both
misguided and doomed to failure.

I would echo the previous recommendations that anyone interested in
informed technological speculation (current, near future, and far
future) should read Eric Drexler's "The Engines of Creation"
(nanotechnology) and Hans Moravec's "Mind Children" (robotics).  In
addition, I would also recommend Stewart Brand's "The Media Lab"
(telecommunications/graphics/human-computer interaction) and Grant
Fjermedal's "The Tommorow Makers" (robotics/AI).

Both the level of technology and the standard of living are likely to
increase drastically in the near future -- continuing and accelerating
the current levels of progress.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Brian Yamauchi				University of Rochester
yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu		Computer Science Department
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