Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!att!cbnews!military From: pjt@niksula.hut.fi (Pekka J Taipale) Newsgroups: sci.military Subject: Re: Lithuania / Warsaw Pact military capabilities Message-ID: <15417@cbnews.ATT.COM> Date: 10 Apr 90 16:47:02 GMT References: <15274@cbnews.ATT.COM> Sender: military@cbnews.ATT.COM Organization: Helsinki University of Technology, Finland Lines: 63 Approved: military@att.att.com From: pjt@niksula.hut.fi (Pekka J Taipale) In article <15274@cbnews.ATT.COM> samho@vlsi.cs.washington.edu (Sam Ho) writes: >Does anybody know about the independent military capabilities of >Lithuania? If the situation there became a military one, how much >resistance could Lithuania put up against the USSR? Note that I am >NOT talking about the political, moral, etc. character of the >independence declaration or any Soviet response. (That's out of line >for sci.military.) How would it compare to, e.g. Prague Spring. I don't think the Lithuanians have any military power at all. All Lithuanian young men are required to go to the Red Army, like all young men in the USSR. Red Army soldiers from the Baltic countries have been severely discriminated - they are often beaten, put into jail, or even tortured to death - because the Russians think they are unreliable, potential rebels. Well, that's a sure way to make them unreliable. Many Russians also feel envy, because the standard of living in the Baltic countries is better than in the 'deep east' of USSR. That's why the Lithuanian goverment ordered Lithuanians to leave the army. Of course, being AWL from any army is a severe crime, and this is one of the reasons why the situation in Lithuania is becoming hot. Personally, I consider the possibility of armed rebel against the USSR minimal. The Litthuanians know that they can't win by arms. They can only win by talks. The Russians may try to provocate, but I think it won't succeed in the Baltic countries - the Lithuanians use to think before they do something dumb. Provocation might work in some southerns states of the USSR (in fact, they may even not need a provocation :-). Sorry if this is politics - I think many find it interesting, anyway. [mod.note: Well, let's not delve any deeper into this aspect of this situation, OK ? - Bill ] Compared to the Prague Spring - it would propably not be any harder for the Red Army. I just think the USSR can't afford it. >On a more general note, what is the military balance of the Warsaw >Pact? My understanding is that the USSR has most of the troops. Say, 90% of them. >A chart like this would be nice: > USSR Lithuania; Combined Baltics; E Germany; non-USSR WP total; etc. >Infantry | | | | | >Armor | | | | | >Air | | | | | >Naval | | | | | >along with relevant commentary. (Quality, Training, etc.) I'm sorry, I can't tell you much figures. Armor, air and naval for Lithuania and Combined Baltics are 0. Infantry might rise up from Red Army-trained men with hunting rifles (which, against the Moscow's requirement, have not been given to Soviet authorities). I think it would make at most a few thousand men, but it's hard to say. -- Pekka Taipale -- pjt@niksula.hut.fi