Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!samsung!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!usc!apple!limbo!taylor
From: frisk@rhi.hi.is (Fridrik Skulason)
Newsgroups: comp.society
Subject: The next 15 years (20 years ago)
Message-ID: <1015@limbo.Intuitive.Com>
Date: 19 Jul 90 18:17:26 GMT
Sender: taylor@limbo.Intuitive.Com
Organization: University of Iceland (RHI)
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Approved: taylor@Limbo.Intuitive.Com

I have been reading a book, "The Computerized Society", published in 1970,
where the authors, James Martin and Adrian R. D. Norman look 15-20 years
ahead, trying to predict changes in the computing world.

This is very interesting reading, not only because of the predictions that
came true, but also because of those that did not.

What did they predict ?

    "...mass production of the machines with a very sharp drop in cost..."

    "...exponential increase in execution speed and storage size..."

    "...many areas off standardization that will have a snowball effect as
     programs used in installation spread to others..."

    "...[computers] becoming linked to the telephone network so that
     computers will be able to communicate with other computers..."

    "...an industry is growing up to provide programs for computer users,
    and will probably become one of the major industries of the 1970s..."

    "...most office buildings will include a Picturephone room, and
    executives will have such machines on their desks..."

    "...when Picturephone sets are installed, we can expect to have links
    which can carry 500.000 bits per second or more..."

    "...people everywhere must be able to dial up a computing facility
    appropriate to their needs..."

    "...dedicated amateurs will probably begin to write and sell programs
    to the "utilities"..."

But what did they not predict is even more interesting.  Among the wrong
prediction, one of the most interesting has to to with "home terminals".

They predicted a huge increase of terminals located in homes and connected
to mainframes, via inexpensive dial-up lines.  The idea that an individual
might have a computer in his home - a computer as powerful as the 
mainframes of 1970 - simply did not occur to them. But what would the
"dedicated amateur" with his "home terminal" then do with it ?

    "...the interest and excitement that is likely to be stirred up by
    being able to dial up and work with an ever-growing number of computers
    is likely to be far greater, and far more time-absorbing than the
    attraction of hobbies such as ham radio and videotape.  It is probable as
    the available computers increase, as education about computers spreads,
    and as leisure times increases as a result of automation, the computer
    amateurs will become a growing body.  Magazines will be produced for
    them.  Industry will encourage them and enthusiastically sell to them."

    "... [programming] is a creative, enjoyable work; work that wives and
    children can do; work that disabled and in some cases blind people are
    doing".

    "Whereas a man might use a home computer terminal for scanning newspapers
    or for stock market studies, his wife might use it for shopping..."

And so on - some predictions were accurate, other failed miserably.  What
about our predictions today ?  What will the next 15 years be like - does
anyone want to make a similar set of prediction for the year 2005 ?

Fridrik Skulason