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From: yamauchi@crash.dpl.scg.hac.com (Brian Yamauchi)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: NASA: A Can-Do Agency Becomes A Can't Do Bureaucracy
Message-ID: <9718@hacgate.UUCP>
Date: 25 Jul 90 21:51:19 GMT
References: <8824@jpl-devvax.JPL.NASA.GOV> <=^1$NW#@rpi.edu> <1990Jul25.155957.27656@zoo.toronto.edu>
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Organization: Hughes Research Labs, Malibu, CA
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In article <1990Jul25.155957.27656@zoo.toronto.edu> henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer) writes:
>
>There is
>near-unanimous agreement that once the post-Challenger backlog clears,
>the US commercial launch industry is facing a major capacity glut and
>will hit hard times.

>>Part of the answer is that the Soviets need 90 launches per year to maintiain
>>their capability...
>
>No, that is not part of the answer at all.  That tells why they need such a
>capability; it says nothing about *how they achieve that capability*,
>which was the question being asked.  The US very definitely could use more
>timely and cheaper launches, even if it doesn't need 90 a year.  As you
>said elsewhere, look at the shuttle manifest.  The backlog is half a decade
>or more, and some missions have quietly died because of the delays.

These statements seem a bit contradictory.  Does the U.S. have a
launch capacity shortage or an oversupply?  I know you included "once
the backlog clears" in the first statement, but the latter statement
indicates that this won't be for a while.

And even once the backlog clears, is the shuttle _really_ going to be
launching often enough to meet its promises (what was that about 24
launches/year?) and take all of the customers away from the private
launch companies?

______________________________________________________________________________

Brian Yamauchi                          Hughes Research Laboratories
yamauchi@aic.hrl.hac.com                Artificial Intelligence Center
______________________________________________________________________________