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From: spoffojj@hq.af.mil (Jason Spofford)
Newsgroups: comp.ai.neural-nets
Subject: Re: NN solution of non-deterministic problems. Doable or stupid?
Message-ID: <spoffojj.649522001@lgn>
Date: 1 Aug 90 14:46:41 GMT
References: <14121@shlump.nac.dec.com>
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I'll give you my two cents...

If you plotted the monthly rain accumulation amounts over the last 40
years for Duluth, you would end up with a simple graph of rain fall
amounts over time. This graph would have a line that went up and down
depending on the seasons. What you are asking the NN to do is to
project what is going to happen in the future, based on what happened
in the past. 

	I have not trained NN's (in the traditional approaches) so I
am a little unclear on exactly how to train the NN to perform this
function. I imagine the input to the NN would be TIME, like the number
of months. You would train the NN on the last forty years by
presenting each month, one at a time, and telling the NN what the
outputs should be (the rainfall amounts). The NN will hopefully attempt to
create a function that will tell you not only what really happened in
the past, but what will happen in the future too, by presenting a
future TIME value.

	There are so many variables in weather that the forecasting
performance of a NN trained as stated above is likely to be poor. 
I hope this info is useful.

--
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)       Jason Spofford <((((((> spoffojj.hq.af.mil       (
)       LAN Manager       George Mason Univ. Grad. Stud. (
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