Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!usc!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!rpi!bu.edu!mirror!frog!john
From: john@frog.UUCP (John Woods)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: NASA: A Can-Do Agency Becomes A Can't Do Bureaucracy
Message-ID: <17260@frog.UUCP>
Date: 30 Jul 90 19:55:00 GMT
References: <8824@jpl-devvax.JPL.NASA.GOV> <=^1$NW#@rpi.edu> <9718@hacgate.UUCP>
Organization: Misanthropes-R-Us
Lines: 31

In article <9718@hacgate.UUCP>, yamauchi@crash.dpl.scg.hac.com (Brian Yamauchi) writes:
> In article <1990Jul25.155957.27656@zoo.toronto.edu> henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer) writes:
> >The US very definitely could use more
> >timely and cheaper launches, even if it doesn't need 90 a year.  As you
> >said elsewhere, look at the shuttle manifest.  The backlog is half a decade
> >or more, and some missions have quietly died because of the delays.
> These statements seem a bit contradictory.  Does the U.S. have a
> launch capacity shortage or an oversupply?  I know you included "once
> the backlog clears" in the first statement, but the latter statement
> indicates that this won't be for a while.

The key here is that there are no *new* customers because launches are too
expen$ive and unreliable.  Once the current backlog is cleared, launches
will still be just as expensive, so the only customers will STILL be the
military and communications companies, who just don't need all that many
flights.  Second, the untimeliness of flights means that spur-of-the-
moment applications are impossible, and (when several launcher classes are
all down at the same time) the prospect of a payload having to wait a
decade kills a lot of potential projects that aren't spur of the moment.

Pegasus is a hopeful step; while the per-pound cost isn't less, your entry
cost is less--you don't need to get $60 million of value out of an entire
launch, you only need about $6 million.  That may open up new applications
that were just too tricky to piggyback on someone else's flight.  Furthermore,
with their promised ability to launch on a couple of days' notice, they
will be great for spontaneous projects.

Now all we need is a big stack of cheap, B-52 launched Titan IVs....	;-)
-- 
John Woods, Charles River Data Systems, Framingham MA, (508) 626-1101
...!decvax!frog!john, john@frog.UUCP, ...!mit-eddie!jfw, jfw@eddie.mit.edu