Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!uunet!ssbell!dsndata!wayne From: wayne@dsndata.uucp (Wayne Schlitt) Newsgroups: comp.arch Subject: Re: Extremely Fast Filesystems Message-ID: Date: 8 Aug 90 12:53:46 GMT References: <5539@darkstar.ucsc.edu> <13285@yunexus.YorkU.CA> <30728@super.ORG> <13667@cbmvax.commodore.com> <40644@mips.mips.COM> Sender: wayne@dsndata.UUCP Organization: Design Data Lines: 44 In-reply-to: mash@mips.COM's message of 7 Aug 90 14:54:10 GMT In article <40644@mips.mips.COM> mash@mips.COM (John Mashey) writes: > In article <13667@cbmvax.commodore.com> jesup@cbmvax (Randell Jesup) writes: > >... > >[ ... ] (I hope we haven't started the 32+ addr bit rwars again...) > > Well, there are always less higher-end things than lower-end ones. > However, I'd STRONGLY disagree with the idea that 64-bit machines will > remain confined to the super- & minisuper world for 10-20 more years. ^^^^^ yes, 20 years is probably too long but i think that 10 years isnt too far off the mark. my guess is that it will be 7-10 years before 64bit computers are making inroads into the 32bit market. (maybe by then we will have finally gotten away from 16bit computers. 1/2 :-) > I propose instead: > a) We are currently consuming address space at the rate of 1 bit year. i thought it was only 1 bit per 18 months... new data? > b) [says that there are commercial people who already want > 31-32 bits of virtual address space, and they want more.] and they are putting these applications on everyone's desk...? or are these applications things that they would have run on mainframes or super-mini's if your "killer-micro's" werent chosen? > c) Observe that there already exist desktop workstations that > support max physical memories in the 128MB - 512MB range, > using 4Mb DRAMs. Hence, by the 64Mb DRAM generation, one can expect > 2GB - 8GB maxes. After all, at that point, you can get 4GB or > so within a 1-ft cube. using your own numbers, at one bit a year it will be 3-5 years before physical memory _maximums_ will reach 4GB. at one bit every 1.5 years, it will be more like 4.5-7.5 years. how long do you think it will be before 4GB is typical? also, when do you expect 64Mb DRAMS to come out? my guess would be around 5-6 years or so, and then it will take at least a year before they have ramped up production to the point that they are cheaper than 16Mb DRAMS. (as a reference point, would you consider 4Mb DRAMS "common" now? when do you think that 4Mb DRAMS became or will become "common"?) > [ .... ] -wayne