Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!uwm.edu!csd4.csd.uwm.edu!info-high-audio-request
From: bilver!bill@uunet.UU.NET (Bill Vermillion)
Newsgroups: rec.audio.high-end
Subject: Re: DAT for $800 ?
Message-ID: <6099@uwm.edu>
Date: 4 Sep 90 13:12:42 GMT
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Approved: tjk@csd4.csd.uwm.edu


In article <6042@uwm.edu> sho@maxwell.physics.purdue.edu (Sho Kuwamoto) writes:
>
>In article <5988@uwm.edu> bilver!bill@uunet.UU.NET (Bill Vermillion) writes:
>>VCRs [started at $1500]
>
>>Given that the VCR prices didn't really start falling until shipments in
>>excess of 1,000,000 per month became common about 3 years ago, and given
>>that the average person can't seem to tell the difference between a 6 hour
>>VHS tape and a 2 hour tape, it would indicate that the average person would
>>not need an audio system of DAT quality.  I don't suspect you will see
>>DAT's ever selling more than 10,000 units per month anytime in the next 5
>>years, if ever.   
>
>> [and that's why prices won't drop like a rock]
>
>This argument seems to ignore completely the fascination the American
>public has with the word "digital."  In fact, this argument could
>easily have been applied to CD players.  At the time, we could have
>said, "how many people need digital optical storage when a simple
>phonograph record will do?"  
>
>Now that the nation is so CD conscious, I think that DAT will sell
>even if the quality were not noticeably better than "normal" tape
>decks of comparable price.

I base my feeling on what I have seen in the audio business over the past
umpteem-jillion years.  I remember when the LP was introduced and I remeber
the speed wars between the 45's and LPs.

I also remember when the first stereo devices were available, and the
machines to play them on.   Reel to reel 7.5 ips, two track with staggered
heads.  Then they finally got inline heads.  Then they got 4-track heads so
they were finally able to bring the tapes close to LP prices.  The first
stereo tapes were typically a selection of the "best" tracks from a given
LP because the maximum time was 30 minutes, while most LP's were 45
minutes.

Some of the first stereo recordings for the "hi-fi" group were made just
about the time the LP's were introduced.  The stereo LP followed about 8
years later.

I do NOT disagree that the public is CD concious and that they do
recognize the leap in quality.  I do disagree with your conclusion that
there will be a jump to DAT.   For the "average" user the CD will probably
become the unit of choice.   The cassette was a late-comer and did push the
LP to the back while CD's killed it - but NOT because it was a recording
and playback media, but because it was a convenient, and for the average
use, a better medium than disc.  It didn't break, it didn't scratch, and
worked in cars quite well.

History has shown that there is always a pre-dominant media for playback
while there have been alternative methods available.  The average user
doesn't need/use the record capabilities of the cassette.  Although many
copied their LP's to casette for cars, others copied them to cassette to
prevent wear.   The CD offers so many advantages, including all the
advantages the cassettes offered except recording, that I personally can
not see the DAT impacting the market to the extent cassettes did.

There will be many DAT sales, but I don't think it will be the amount you
suggest.

>You drew an analogy between DAT and S-VHS.  I think a more appropriate
>analogy would have been between Dolby-S and S-VHS.  DAT prices will
>definitely fall below $300 in a couple of years.  I was just in Japan
>this summer, where the Sony model they are pushing here for $999 could
>be bought for less than $600.
 
 I don't recall any analogy I made between DAT and S-VHS, and I can't see
 where one would be appropriate.  DAT prices will of course fall, but with
 complete "boom-boxes" selling for under $200 with
 CD/Cassette/AM-FM/Amp/Speaker there is no incentive for the average person
 to go to a DAT.

Don't let your background/tastes/experiences distort your perception of
the average user.  After all you are reading rec.audio.high-end and the
average user doesn't care what we discuss here.

I base my observations from working originally in the broadcast medium and
later the recording industry and knowing what the average use listened to.
And you notice I stressed average many times in the above. 
You will also find that there are TVs, and hence the base
requisite for a VCR in most of the homes in America, and you will not find
audio penetration to that extent.  

I stand by my contention that DAT will not be common media, and that it
will not be as cheap as you predict.

Time will tell.  If I remember, I will re-post this article, and make
appropriate comments 5 to 10 years fron now :-) ;-)     

bill


-- 
Bill Vermillion - UUCP: uunet!tarpit!bilver!bill
                      : bill@bilver.UUCP