Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: launch rates
Message-ID: <1990Sep26.174811.8026@zoo.toronto.edu>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <10195.26fde341@pbs.org> <1990Sep25.033816.16652@zoo.toronto.edu> <10209.26ff5e6c@pbs.org>
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 90 17:48:11 GMT

In article <10209.26ff5e6c@pbs.org> pstinson@pbs.org writes:
>>  -- Apollo 9, in early 1969, was the first Saturn V launch that was
>> considered a "production" launch, not encumbered by major debugging work
>> on KSC facilities and equipment -- and post-1969 launches were slowed down
>> by the Apollo 13 accident (which is why there was only one in 1970)
>And STS-5 was the first comparable launch in the Shuttle proram.  STS-1 through
>STS-4 were billed as test flights and were encumbered by revamping of KSC
>facilities.   Shuttle launches had to recover from Challenger (which is why
>there weren't any launches in 1987.)  Shuttle went through the same stuff Saturn
>V did...

You haven't addressed my basic point.  There was only about one year --
late 1968 through late 1969 -- when efforts were really being made to get
as many Saturns up as possible, and even that was relatively early in the
program, with facilities not yet completely shaken down.  In that year
(not quite lined up with a calendar year), they managed five, and were
prepared for six if necessary.  (The pressure eased with the success of
Apollo 11; had it failed, the next launch would have been in October.)
The shuttle program, trying year after year for maximum launch rate, with
far more launch experience behind it now than the Saturns, has only beaten
five *once*, and disaster ensued immediately.

As you point out, both programs had hiatuses and test periods.  What this
means is that your averages are *meaningless*.  If you want to see what
the programs could do, you have to look at what they could do when they
were cleared to try.  The Saturn had reached a launch rate that the
shuttle is struggling, so far mostly unsuccessfully, to beat.
-- 
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