Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: launch ratesDOWN 18
Message-ID: <1990Sep28.163456.25849@zoo.toronto.edu>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <10195.26fde341@pbs.org> <1990Sep25.033816.16652@zoo.toronto.edu> <10209.26ff5e6c@pbs.org> <1990Sep26.174811.8026@zoo.toronto.edu> <10230.27023455@pbs.org>
Date: Fri, 28 Sep 90 16:34:56 GMT

In article <10230.27023455@pbs.org> pstinson@pbs.org writes:
>... Let's just wait in see what the Shuttle is doing
>by the end of 1992.  I exdpect we will see at least 9 launches in 1991 and at
>least 12 more in 1992.  No year after that will see less than 10.  

I'm willing to wait.  As I recall, NRC suggested that 12 was attainable
only as a "surge" rate, and then only if everything went well.

How long do you think it will be before the next orbiter loss?  Higher
flight rates will make that happen sooner.

>By the way.  How long do you think the U.S. Congress would have let NASA go on
>building from scratch 5 Saturn V's a year simply to be discard them after one
>launch? ...

Probably no longer than necessary for a reusable first stage to be developed,
which was being seriously thought about.  (Indeed, the "flyback F-1" -- a
Saturn V first stage with wings and engines -- was almost chosen as the
shuttle's booster.  Development would have cost 20% more than the SRBs.)
-- 
Imagine life with OS/360 the standard  | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
operating system.  Now think about X.  |  henry@zoo.toronto.edu   utzoo!henry