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From: hnewstrom@x102c.harris-atd.com (Harvey Newstrom)
Newsgroups: sci.med.aids
Subject: Not a high risk group?
Summary: Is being gay a high risk group?
Keywords: AIDS high risk group sexual transmission CDC statistics
Message-ID: <40142@shemp.CS.UCLA.EDU>
Date: 15 Oct 90 14:58:12 GMT
Sender: news@CS.UCLA.EDU
Reply-To: hnewstrom@x102c.ess.harris.com (Harvey Newstrom)
Organization: Harris_Electronic_Systems Telecommunications Network_Engineering
Lines: 38
Approved: phil@wubios.wustl.edu
Note:	Copyright 1990 by Daniel R. Greening.  Permission granted for
Note:	non-commercial reproduction.
Archive-number: 2624

I am not sure that being gay is a so-called "high risk" group.  I think
that there is a flaw in the statistical interpretation.

   1.  About 10% of the population is "gay".
   2.  One would expect about 10% of the AIDS patients to be "gay" by random
       chance.
   3.  Actually, about 70% of the AIDS patients are "gay".
   4.  Therefore, "gays" account for more AIDS cases than would be statistically
       expected.  This means they have a higher rate than "non-gays".

I put "gays" in quotes, because I think the term is misapplied and is not
used consistently between point one and the other points.

I believe that the Center for Disease Control counts a male in the "homosexual"
category if he has had any homosexual experience in his entire life.  This is
not the definition of "homosexual" used by Kinsey in when surveys showed that
about 10% of the general population is exclusively homosexual in orientation.
Since Kinsey found that about 70% of the adult male population admits having
at lease one homosexual experience, I think the above logic should be 
reworded as follows.

   1.  About 70% of the population has had a homosexual experience.
   2.  One would expect about 70% of the AIDS patients to have had a 
       homosexual experience by random chance.
   3.  Actually, about 70% of the AIDS patients have had a homosexual
       experience.
   4.  Therefore, those having homosexual experiences account for no more
       AIDS cases than would be statistically expected.  This means that they
       do not have a higher rate than persons not having a homosexual
       experience.

Does this make since, or is there a major flaw in my logic.  I realize that
the exact percentages vary over time, but are roughly as I reported.  Any
comments would be appreciated.

__
Harvey Newstrom      hnewstrom@x102c.ess.harris.com       uunet!x102c!hnewstrom
(407)727-5176  FAX:(407)727-5118   P.O.Box 37; M/S 15/8873; Melbourne, FL 32902