Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!usc!wuarchive!julius.cs.uiuc.edu!apple!rutgers!att!cbnews!military From: morgan@ms.uky.edu (Wes Morgan) Newsgroups: sci.military Subject: Re: unconventional terror tactics (Iraq) Message-ID: <1990Oct15.033902.13042@cbnews.att.com> Date: 15 Oct 90 03:39:02 GMT References: <1990Sep27.031917.8257@cbnews.att.com> Sender: military-request@att.att.com Organization: The Puzzle Palace, UKentucky Lines: 76 Approved: military@att.att.com From: Wes Morgan > >The scenarios I have heard or thought up are: > (1) Creation of crude NW warheads by: > (A) using explosives to distribute rad-waste > (B) intentionally creating rad-waste by exposing selected compounds > (such as Iodine) to reactor neutron flux, and then using explosives > in a warhead to distribute these. > Use of these aginst troops. This is almost feasible at this time. The problem would be in reinforcing the delivery systems to account for their new payload. The launch/control systems for most intermediate/long range missile run on a fairly narrow margin of error. I'm not sure if those systems could be effectively recalibrated for a rad-waste payload. > (2) Launching Anthrax and Botulism spores at troops. I have read that > US troops are being vaccinated against Anthrax. How about botulism? What's the time-to-live of these organisms without a host? I was under the impression that the anthrax vaccinations were to protect against problems caused by animal feces and corpses in the desert. This could be a hairy scenario; I'm not sure that the current US NBC equipment could handle a microorganic attack. This one would probably best be accomplished on a small scale, one raid at a time. I don't see the entire Saudi border being infused with anthrax. > (3) Launching the same BW or NW weapons at the oil fields in order to drive > off the workers. How persistent would the effects be? I've read of persistent chemical agents being "live" for periods of up to months *in concentration*. How long a disparate spray would last, I don't know. Rad-waste could be nasty in this context; a coating of, say, cobalt-60 or strontium-138 could stick around for quite a while, considering their long half-life. Iodine-131, which was mentioned again, has both a low roentgen count and relatively short half-life; that's why it is used in thyroid diagnoses in humans. > (4) Distributing the BW or NW agents from a light aircraft over a US city > such as Washington, DC. Such an aircraft could be rented or stolen by an > Iraqi or Palestinian terrorist already in the US, and the spores could > have been sent over here before the Kuwait invasion. Highly unlikely. I don't really believe that something as "hot" as rad-waste could be effectively smuggled into the US or Canada. Bioweapons could be another story, but I still think it's rather unlikely. I think events have shown that Hussein underestimated the world's response to his actions in the Gulf; I don't think he would have made plans such as this ahead of time. > (5) Using persistent CW agents against the oil fields. How long would > it take to get the oil fields operational? There are too many variables in the longevity equation for me to hazard a guess here. Sandstorms, rainstorms , geo- thermal effects, and countermeasures could all negatively affect potency and longevity. Of course, we could always set all the outputs on fire for a week or so, just to sterilize the area....8) > (6) Launching CW or BW or NW carrying SCUD missiles from > merchant ships near the US E or W coast. These could have been > sent out before the Kuwait invasion to evade the embargo. Again, why would Iraq move such weapons that far away from the front? My gosh, the Soviets and Americans are holding joint strategy/intel sessions about this; could he really be that suicidal? I doubt it. If he were, he wouldn't be changing houses every 8 hours or so..... -- | Wes Morgan, not speaking for | {any major site}!ukma!ukecc!morgan | | the University of Kentucky's | morgan@engr.uky.edu | | Engineering Computing Center | morgan%engr.uky.edu@UKCC.BITNET | Lint is the compiler's only means of dampening the programmer's ego.