Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!cs.utexas.edu!swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!wuarchive!decwrl!infopiz!lupine!rfg
From: rfg@NCD.COM (Ron Guilmette)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.m88k
Subject: Re: Tektronix shutdown & move away from 88k's??
Message-ID: <2176@lupine.NCD.COM>
Date: 21 Oct 90 19:31:27 GMT
References: <1536@ftc.framentec.fr> <1990Oct19.120218.9450@canterbury.ac.nz> <15497@hydra.gatech.EDU>
Organization: Network Computing Devices, Inc., Mt. View, CA
Lines: 64

In article <15497@hydra.gatech.EDU> ken@dali.gatech.edu (Ken Seefried iii) writes:
<
<I think this is pretty close to the mark.  While I would not call the
<88k doomed, any more than I would call, say, the Intergraph Clipper
<doomed, or the AMD29000, I think it has missed the chance to gain any
<sizeable market penetration.   I think you'll find a trend in the
<industry toward clustering around 2 or 3 architectures (as we have
<really always done: 8080/z80 and 6502, 80x86 and 680x0, etc.).
<Unless something really strange happens, you'll see the SPARC and
<MIPS chips float to the top of the heap.  The rest of the pack is
<left to niche markets or oblivion.

I believe that rumors of the 88k's demise are greatly exagerated.  So
what if one marginal player drops out of the workstation business.
(Tek is still in the X-terminal business after all.)  BFD.

Anyway, even if (over time) that became true, MIPS would *not* be the
first chip I though of as being (necessarily) the next in line for the
#2 spot behind Sparc.  (And keep in mind that we are only talking about
RISC chips now... as far as other chips, the 68xxx and 80x86 still have
lots of milage left in them, and when it comes to instruction sets in
general, I imagine that the 370 and VAX instruction sets will be around
awhile yet).

I personally don't know what the outcome of the RISC wars will be yet,
but I think that it is a bit early to count Moto out.  Even if Moto was
out, what about the i860?  What about HP PA?  What about the IBM RS/6000
processor?  What data is there to support the notion that MIPS will beat
out all of these to take the #2 slot?

The last time I heard, MIPS was still a little (basically one product)
company that was bleeding red ink.  Also, the last thing I heard about
DEC's push in the (MIPS-based) RISC business was that they were really
not selling very many DECstations at all.

(If this posting doesn't draw a response from John Mashey, I'll eat my
modem! :-)

My own opinion is that (over time) the heir to the #2 spot will be some
company with *both* deep pockets and a willingness to second source.  That
most likely means either Moto or HP (although one never knows when, if ever,
Intel will wake up and realize that second sourcing is Good and not Bad).

<As far as technical issues of which chip is `best', I haven't seen too
<many cases where this has been a criteria for being top of the heap.

Right.  I worked for NatSemi a couple of years ago when the 32000's slide
into oblivion was getting particularly steep.  In the early days, the
32000 program had a motto: `Elegance is everything'.  You can still
occasionally see licence plate frames tooling around Silly-Cone Valley
on the backs of Hondas emblazoned with that ridiculous motto.  As the
demise of the 32000 began to reach fever pitch, some of the marketing
guys at National revised the motto to fit the changing times:

		Elephants is everything!

I'm not 100% sure, but I have always presumed that the reference was intended
to refer to white ones. :-)

-- 

// Ron Guilmette  -  C++ Entomologist
// Internet: rfg@ncd.com      uucp: ...uunet!lupine!rfg
// Motto:  If it sticks, force it.  If it breaks, it needed replacing anyway.