Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!uakari.primate.wisc.edu!sdd.hp.com!usc!apple!agate!shelby!rutgers!aramis.rutgers.edu!athos.rutgers.edu!nanotech From: png@cup.portal.com (Peter Nicholas Glaskowsky) Newsgroups: sci.nanotech Subject: Re: Nanotechnology Message-ID: Date: 25 Oct 90 20:32:59 GMT Sender: nanotech@athos.rutgers.edu Organization: The Portal System (TM) Lines: 62 Approved: nanotech@aramis.rutgers.edu [Moderator's note: this is a follow-up to the "nanoecomonics" article previously grabbed from the poli-sci list.] > I think it's worth mentioning at this point that within the next half-century, > the entire nature of economics will be changed by technology. Specifically, > nanotechnology. Well, I don't think it's going to happen that fast. Even if the basic technology for these "molecular assemblers" becomes widely available in the next five years, it'll take much more than 45 years just to figure out how to use it to produce all the things we need to live. (Not that we'll necessarily want to figure out how to manufacture the same kinds of products we use today-- it'll probably turn out to be better to develop new products which serve the same purposes.) And... > Why work for someone else when you can make your own food, build your own > house, clothe yourself, and build and power your own appliances with the > energy available to you wherever you reside (i.e. sunlight and wind)? Only > because you _like the work_. The problem here is that you're not going to be able to get anywhere near enough energy from "sunlight and wind" to create complex materials-- the chemical bonds you'll be breaking and forming won't be any cheaper because you're doing them on such a small scale. Nanotechnology might help promote the cause of individualism, but it's not a sure thing. This isn't the first time that some basic technology has been heralded as a breakthrough in self-sufficiency. Farming probably looked the same to hunter-gatherers... > In that coming world, barring political obstructionism, nearly everyone will > be middle-class and healthy. The remaining forms of wealth will be land, raw > materials, and information. Just remember that dirt and garbage and junk make > excellent raw materials for assemblers, and information is an unlimited > resource. Right? "All you need to farm is land, and a few raw materials (seeds, etc.). You'll never again have to put up with your brother-in-law just because you need his help to chase down an antelope!" > On the other hand, the copyright and patent battles over nanotech software > will be something to see. I'm sure we'll see those battles, all right. And that software will become just as important as groceries are to us today. People adapt! Not just to the bad things, but also to the good things. We learn to overcome adversity, and we learn to overcome prosperity, too. Well, I don't want to sound too pessimistic, but it's true, isn't it? We've got telephones, cars, airplanes, nuclear power plants, computers, and all kinds of neat stuff, all around us. One trained person can create enough wealth in a day to support twenty or thirty people. Are we rich? I don't know about you, but I'm sure not! By my standards, of course. Add nanotechnology, and maybe I'll be able to improve my productivity by another order of magnitude. Will I be rich then? I doubt it. . png