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From: lindsay@gandalf.cs.cmu.edu (Donald Lindsay)
Newsgroups: comp.sys.m88k
Subject: Crystal Balls
Message-ID: <10947@pt.cs.cmu.edu>
Date: 1 Nov 90 04:11:44 GMT
References: <1990Oct14.003906.26373@wolves.uucp> <1536@ftc.framentec.fr> <1990Oct19.120218.9450@canterbury.ac.nz> <656404917.9119@proa.sv.dg.com> <1095@dg.dg.com> <42589@mips.mips.COM>
Organization: Carnegie-Mellon University, CS/RI
Lines: 34

In article <42589@mips.mips.COM> mash@mips.COM (John Mashey) writes:
>In 1986 Motorola presentations,...
>The foils also say (exact quote):
>1991	-	GAAS INTEGER UNIT (>50 MIPS)"

Damn fine left-handed guessing!  In 1991, I expect several players to
be touting numbers bigger than 50. (IBM already quotes 41, after
all.) The fact that the chips will be CMOS, not GaAs, is the
left-handed part. I should do so well, five years out.

>In 1986 Motorola presentations, the 78000 (previous number of 88000) had 
>the following schedule:
>	Production (200-500 sets) April 88
>... but it was about 3Q89
>before many production chips were shipped...

Five quarters late, on a four-year projection. Middling.

>Vendors often have plans they believe in, and things just
>don't work that way, and t his happens to almost everybody...

Ah, not to be mean about it, but isn't the R4000 overdue?  And that
85 MHz R6000?  Come to think about it: does anyone remember ANY chip
that came in early?

Recently, I've noticed a bit more cut-and-thrust than usual: some of
the posts (particularly on comp.sys.m88k) have had a distinct "your
chip wears army boots!" flavor. We're due for (another) interesting
year on comp.arch, with some major announcements due. I'd learn a lot
more about these almost-wonderful products from critical analysis
than from criticism. Just a thought.

-- 
Don		D.C.Lindsay