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From: dmocsny@minerva.che.uc.edu (Daniel Mocsny)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Replacement and Insurance Costs
Message-ID: <6640@uceng.UC.EDU>
Date: 5 Nov 90 19:12:00 GMT
References: <1494.27343C70@ofa123.fidonet.org>
Sender: news@uceng.UC.EDU
Organization: University of Cincinnati, Cin'ti., OH
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In article <1494.27343C70@ofa123.fidonet.org> Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org (Wales Larrison) writes:
>  So what was the real replacement cost of a lost shuttle mission?  
>Replacement costs are orbiter (assume $1.5 billion), lost ET, lost 
>SRBs, lost SSMEs.  ET costs are in the vicinity of $25 M.  SRB cases 
>(not the propellent) are about $25 M per shipset (two complete sets 
>of segments and components). SSMEs are more expensive - a shipset of 
>SSMEs costs about $150 M.   Total of about  $1.7 B.  Which is about 
>1/2 of the "3,000,000,000.00" being bandied around.  


I have a question (not an assertion):

When the next shuttle accident occurs, what will be the likelihood
that the disaster will result from another generic flaw that grounds
the program for an extended period?

The MTTR (mean time to repair) is probably an important (hypothetical)
statistic to consider with shuttle accidents. The money spent to sustain 
an idle program during the repair interim might be considered a
legitimate part of "replacement cost". Also, the time value of idle
assets should be taken into account (i.e., all the expensive hardware
that takes a two-year vacation). 

If NASA can recover from the next shuttle disaster within a few months,
and keep up with its launch commitments, then the cost for the lost 
shuttle is roughly its purchase price. But if the program goes down 
for 2 years, the overall loss is probably far in excess of the purchase 
price of the shuttle.


--
Dan Mocsny				Snail:
Internet: dmocsny@minerva.che.uc.edu	Dept. of Chemical Engng. M.L. 171
	  dmocsny@uceng.uc.edu		University of Cincinnati
513/751-6824 (home) 513/556-2007 (lab)	Cincinnati, Ohio 45221-0171