Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!ogicse!unicorn!n8035388
From: n8035388@unicorn.wwu.edu (Worth Henry A)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: Replacement and Insurance Costs
Message-ID: <1990Nov5.231434.2117@unicorn.wwu.edu>
Date: 5 Nov 90 23:14:34 GMT
References: <1494.27343C70@ofa123.fidonet.org> <6640@uceng.UC.EDU>
Reply-To: n8035388@unicorn.WWU.EDU (Worth Henry A)
Organization: Western Washington Univ, Bellingham, WA
Lines: 24

>In article <1494.27343C70@ofa123.fidonet.org> Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org (Wales Larrison) writes:
>
>I have a question (not an assertion):
>
>When the next shuttle accident occurs, what will be the likelihood
>that the disaster will result from another generic flaw that grounds
>the program for an extended period?
>
    Even if the accident is unrelated to any generic flaw, expect the
fleet to be grounded for at least six months while various review boards
and Congress (opps, nearly forgot the press) determine the probable 
cause; depends a lot on how long it takes everyone to reach a concensous.

    Additionally, even if it is determined that the accident was unrelated 
to any generic flaw, the review process would likely result in "safety
upgrades" that would result in further delays. There is also a very real 
possibility that the resulting political firestorm would result in the 
permanent grounding of the fleet. :-( 

    Our pioneer ancestors must think us such ungrateful wimps, to simply
survive, yet alone carve out a nation, they faced more risk on a regular
basis than we are prepared to allow a few informed volunteers to face 
today -- despite the potential gain, despite the infrequency, despite
mankind's instinctive need to explore and pioneer.