Path: utzoo!censor!geac!torsqnt!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rutgers!cs.utexas.edu!samsung!umich!sharkey!cfctech!teemc!fmeed1!cage
From: cage@fmeed1.UUCP (Russ Cage)
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: You Can't Expect a Space Station to be Cheap
Summary: Please get real, Chuck, and re-read the context.
Message-ID: <8580@fmeed1.UUCP>
Date: 26 Oct 90 17:52:31 GMT
References: <6762@hub.ucsb.edu> <9010250032.AA13018@iti.org> <6781@hub.ucsb.edu>
Reply-To: russ@m-net.ann-arbor.mi.us (Russ Cage)
Organization: Ford Motor Co., Electronics Div., Dearborn, MI
Lines: 89

In <6781@hub.ucsb.edu> 3001crad@ucsbuxa.ucsb.edu (Charles Frank Radley) writes:
>Sorry about the double spacing, but the editor on this system
>does it every time I try to upload a pre-prepared message.

If you are ASCII-uploading to a Unix system, strip linefeeds on upload.

>  I thought the HLV would be reusable....There is some psychology
>involved, Shuttle exists, HLV does not.   There is a risk in
>betting that a non-existent HLV will work.  Once again, the
>problem of credibility.

There is no risk in betting that the Titan and Delta motors will
fire, that SRB's will provide thrust (with an occasional failure),
and that fuel tanks will hold fuel.  The risk is that they might
exhibit new and unwelcome behavior when bolted together, which
is a rather small risk.  The costs of refurbishing an entirely
new vehicle based on brand-new technology in order to use it
over again are much riskier to any proposition depending on
economics.  (And you SHOULD know that.)

>+ Does Freedom figure in the cost of developing the Shuttle in
>+ their costing?
> 
>They don't have to because Shuttle exists and its development is
>previously paid for.
> 
>+ they also use subsidized numbers.
> 
>The tapayer is subsidizing himself ?  I do not understand.

Is your mis-understanding the result of not reading the previous
material posted to this newsgroup, or deliberate?

Shuttle's operating costs relating to Fred are not entirely charged
to Fred.  The taxpayer is subsidizing the Fred launch and operations
budget with the Shuttle budget, to make the former less outrageous.
After this is paid for, how much space science, materials science
and life science will get done (the avowed purpose of Fred)?

>+ This HLV will cost less than ONE shuttle flight to  develop.
>+It will lift twice what the Shuttle lifts for a quater to half
>+the launch costs.
> 
>Sounds good.   Good enough to get private venture
>capital.....right ?   So why don't they just go do it ?  Why do
>they want the taxpayer to underwrite it ?

You really aren't listening, are you?

The answer is, they don't.  They just won't build it without a
customer (sensible, no?).  The taxpayer is NOT underwriting
anything, the taxpayer is BUYING something (and paying on
delivery); vendor's risk.  Do you understand the difference?

>+ Besides, they plan to fly it 20 times. Maybe somebody else can
>+ also use it. However even at one use it will be far far cheaper
>+ than using the Shuttle.
> 
>Now you have taken the bait......who is going to pay for those 20
>flights ?

Uh, people who look at the pricetag and find it attractive?
Remember, the development is PAID FOR by the first launch.
Additional launches are just gravy.

> Not at all, SSX is also 90 % off the shelf.  And for a traffic
>projection of 20 flights will be cheaper than an expendable HLV.

Show me anything like SSX which has flown even 2 flights, and
come within a factor of 2 of its cost target.

> + Given the cost of the NASA ACRV this comes as no suprise. Why
>+ not just buy a Soyuz?
> 
>Because that opens other questions, like why not launch Freedom
>or LLNL using Energia ?

Excellent idea!  Why not?  }:->

It does bring up the question:  Is Fred a welfare program for the
aerospace contractors, or a platform for science work?  If the
former, we should put it in the HHS budget.  If the latter, we
should look at buying from whoever is cheapest and most dependable.
If that is the Soviets, so be it.
-- 
Russ Cage	Ford Powertrain Engineering Development Department
Work:  itivax.iti.org!cfctech!fmeed1!cage   (CHATTY MAIL NOT ANSWERED HERE)
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Member:  HASA, "S" division.