Newsgroups: sci.electronics
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: Cellular Phones of the Future
Message-ID: <1990Nov19.175339.14777@zoo.toronto.edu>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <6571@bgsu-stu.UUCP> <1990Nov19.085022.13398@yenta.alb.nm.us>
Date: Mon, 19 Nov 90 17:53:39 GMT

In article <1990Nov19.085022.13398@yenta.alb.nm.us> dt@yenta.alb.nm.us (David B. Thomas) writes:
>Interesting topic.  I think that soon residence phones will be a thing of
>the past.  I predict that a phone number will be associated with a person,
>who can carry a little radio telephone around...

The first question to ask about such schemes is "does the demand suffice to
justify the bandwidth?".  Radio spectrum space is in *very* short supply,
especially in major metropolitan areas.  Wires are the preferred medium
for transmission wherever and whenever they are available, and prices
will reflect this.

The demand looks to me to be fairly small, unlikely to be more than the
current cellular systems, or modest upgrades thereof, can handle.  Few
people actually have much of a need for mobile phone service, barring
emergencies... and carrying a phone around with you just in case you
happen to want it is not going to be popular until (a) the phone hardware
is roughly the size of a pen or a cigarette lighter, and (b) carrying one
around, as opposed to using it, costs almost nothing.  Even if/when that
happens, the mobile phones will be used mostly for emergencies (although
these will be mostly minor personal ones rather than "real" emergencies).
Most people spend most of their time within easy reach of a fixed phone.
See above comment on wires.  What might happen is some sort of system
whereby your office phone talks to your pocket phone and knows when you
are nearby, so that calls for you can be routed by wire rather than by
radio.

Note also that a substantial fraction of all phone calls are aimed at an
office or a household, not at a specific person.
-- 
"I don't *want* to be normal!"         | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
"Not to worry."                        |  henry@zoo.toronto.edu   utzoo!henry