Path: utzoo!mnetor!tmsoft!torsqnt!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!sun-barr!olivea!mintaka!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!primerd!ENI!RELAY!HUSTON
From: HUSTON@RELAY.Prime.COM
Newsgroups: comp.software-eng
Subject: Re: Software Cost Estimation
Message-ID: <101200001@RELAY.Prime.COM>
Date: 14 Dec 90 23:02:13 GMT
References: <5676@taylord>
Lines: 18
Nf-ID: #R:taylord:-567600:RELAY:101200001:000:888
Nf-From: RELAY.Prime.COM!HUSTON    Dec 14 09:25:00 1990


    I know of another estimation model called "Monte Carlo simulation".
    After you set up your tasks and dependencies and take a shot at an
    estimate, you give some indication of how probable it is that your
    estimate is close to reality (how much you trust it).  The project
    is simulated with a bunch of different combinations of different
    tasks finishing late/on time, and a most probable estimate of time
    and finish is produced.

    I'm certainly no expert on Monte Carlo, but the above is my understanding.
    I've seen it used on a number of software projects with very good
    results (the project finishes pretty darn close to the estimated date).
    I don't know of commercially-available PM tools that use it, but I'm
    not "up" on the wealth of tools, so there very well may be some.

    Steve Huston
    PSI Special Systems
    Prime Computer, Inc.