Xref: utzoo sci.space:26375 sci.space.shuttle:6852
Path: utzoo!attcan!uunet!zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5!szabo
From: szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: space news from Nov 5 AW&ST
Message-ID: <20699@crg5.UUCP>
Date: 11 Dec 90 22:19:08 GMT
References: <1990Dec11.055832.24321@zoo.toronto.edu>
Reply-To: szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Organization: Sequent Computer Systems, Inc
Lines: 47

In article <1990Dec11.055832.24321@zoo.toronto.edu> henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer) writes:
>OSC and Hercules get the 1990 National Air and Space Museum Trophy for
>Pegasus.

Congratulations!  Pegasus is indeed the most important space development
of 1990, IMHO.

>...
>Orbital Sciences posts its first after-tax profit, with five Pegasus launches
>sold to date (all to DARPA).

The Pegasus program is still operating at a loss, since it is in the R&D
phase.  Most of the profits come from the Space Data Division, which
operates satellite tracking systems for NASA, DoD, and other organizations.
When doing cutting-edge R&D in the real world (as opposed to begging before
Congress) it helps to have a diversified product line and customer base.  
A major weakness of SSI, Amroc, and other stalling private space companies
is

* they are 1-product companies
* their designs are not compatable with current satellites, but they
  do not have the resources to develop their own satellites 
* they have not put priority on strategic partners (OSC works with
  Martin Marietta and Hercules on their two largest projects).

IMHO, Amroc can still succeed if they do the following:

* Build a rocket with a payload fairing exactly the size of Ariane
  or Delta (so that currently building satellites can be launched)
* Find a strategic partner to do integration and launch (they are
  doing this now)
* Develop and market a second, related product (for example, a 
  small military missile using their patented fuels).


OSC tows the fine line between government contracts (most of its revenue 
still comes from NASA and DoD) and cutting-edge projects with potentially 
large public and private markets.  Unlike the larger aerospace companies, 
they are not afraid to trade short-term profits on government contracts 
for longer-term market potential. 


-- 
Nick Szabo			szabo@sequent.com
"We live and we learn, or we don't live long" -- Robert A. Heinlein
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.