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Newsgroups: sci.space,sci.space.shuttle
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: space news from Nov 5 AW&ST
Message-ID: <1990Dec12.205110.26397@zoo.toronto.edu>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
References: <1990Dec11.055832.24321@zoo.toronto.edu> <20699@crg5.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 90 20:51:10 GMT

In article <20699@crg5.UUCP> szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo) writes:
>A major weakness of SSI, Amroc, and other stalling private space companies
>is
>* they are 1-product companies
>* their designs are not compatable with current satellites, but they
>  do not have the resources to develop their own satellites 
> ...

Actually, I would say the fundamental problem is that a concentration on
small launchers -- in my opinion a wise decision -- implies that you must
build a market, rather than expecting customers to beat a path to your
door immediately.  The survivors will be those who have the backing to
be patient and help the customers figure out what they want.

Actually, much the same comments apply to any attempt to take the large-
launcher market by storm.  The existing market is small -- if anything
there is overcapacity on the horizon -- and is much more sensitive to
established reliability than to cost.  A new low-cost launcher would,
again, have to *build* a market rather than relying on capturing much
of the existing one.

(The reason I think it wise to stick to small launchers is that all the
problems get bigger with the launcher, including the size of the financial
resources needed for market building.)

>* Build a rocket with a payload fairing exactly the size of Ariane
>  or Delta (so that currently building satellites can be launched)

Ha ha ha.  Nick, are you under the impression that the interfaces to
current launchers are standardized?  Not so.  The size of the payload
fairing is the least of the problems.
-- 
"The average pointer, statistically,    |Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology
points somewhere in X." -Hugh Redelmeier| henry@zoo.toronto.edu   utzoo!henry