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From: demon@desire.wright.edu
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: "Computer Models Leave U.S. Leaders Sure of Victory"
Message-ID: <1991Jan7.050403.7374@cbnews.att.com>
Date: 7 Jan 91 05:04:03 GMT
References: <1990Dec19.010219.24876@cbnews.att.com>
Sender: military@cbnews.att.com (William B. Thacker)
Organization: University Computing Services, Wright State University
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Approved: military@att.att.com



From: demon@desire.wright.edu

In article <1990Dec19.010219.24876@cbnews.att.com>, jon@cs.washington.edu (Jon Jacky) writes:
> 
> 
> From: jon@cs.washington.edu (Jon Jacky)
>...text about computer models predicting victory

	Two items of caution:

1)  Computer models allways carry the bias of the programmers and users.  I'm
sure the US TOW missile was rated higher than the Russian anti tank missiles, 
but Egypt proved infantry with RPG's and Sagger's could decimate Isreali tank
units with American weapons.  Iraq will do the same unless M1's have infantry
support.

2)  In 1942 the Japanese held war games to predict the outcome of the Midway
operation.  The US player allocated his carriers NW of Midway and decimated the
Japanese forces, sinking two carriers and severely damaging a third.  The
Japanese player protested the rules and the referees agreed.  Two Japanese
carriers were refloated and the Japanese declared the winners.  So much for war
games.  The enemy will never react the way you plan...

Brett
bkottmann@falcon.aamrl.wpafb.af.mil