Path: utzoo!censor!geac!torsqnt!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!bcm!dimacs.rutgers.edu!aramis.rutgers.edu!athos.rutgers.edu!nanotech From: landman@eng.sun.com (Howard A. Landman) Newsgroups: sci.nanotech Subject: Re: When Nanotech? Message-ID: Date: 9 Jan 91 20:28:08 GMT Sender: nanotech@athos.rutgers.edu Organization: Sun Microsystems, Mt. View, Ca. Lines: 18 Approved: nanotech@aramis.rutgers.edu In article Hanson@charon.arc.nasa.gov (Robin Hanson) writes: >I challenge people to >think about at what odds they would be willing to bet on the claim: > > By 2005, there will be a device, made to atomic specifications, fitting > in less than 1 cubic mm., able to run C programs requiring 10MB memory > at 1 MIPS, and able to replicate itself in less than one year from a > bath of molecules, each of which has less than 100 atoms. At 5-to-1 against, I'd take the against side. At 100-to-1 against, I'd take the for side for a small amount. At 10,000-to-1 against, I'd wager enough that I'd be comfortably wealthy if I won. (If I won, I can think of some things I'd like to buy ... ). -- Howard A. Landman landman@eng.sun.com -or- sun!landman