Path: utzoo!mnetor!tmsoft!torsqnt!lethe!yunexus!ists!helios.physics.utoronto.ca!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!decwrl!parc!janssen From: janssen@parc.xerox.com (Bill Janssen) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Musings on the future of computing... (REPOST) Message-ID: Date: 7 Feb 91 05:28:13 GMT References: <1991Feb6.165031.14655@world.std.com> <15748@cadillac.CAD.MCC.COM> Sender: news@parc.xerox.com Organization: Xerox PARC, Palo Alto, CA Lines: 78 In-Reply-To: speyer@joy.cad.mcc.com's message of 6 Feb 91 20:19:49 GMT (the phrase "simulating the enterprise" immediately reminded me of MCC... :-) I think the future is more intricate than we might imagine. My model of 20 years from now is that every computer is linked to every other, via various networks. Programs as such don't exist to the user, but rather the world is shown as a collection of objects and services. All the objects (people, files, machines, databases) are "actors" in that they are "continuously" animated -- one can never contact one without finding it "ready to run". All objects are theoretically accessible to each other (though in reality objects may exist within domains which are opaque to other objects, so that messages can't get through). Computations take place on whatever machine has the appropriate data and cycles to spare, so that one transaction might actually be computed on your desktop (for a simple request of an object which one has cached), and the next in France (it being simpler to return the "number-of-pages" in the "City-Statutes-of-Dijon" object than to return a full copy so that you can count the pages locally). Similarly, services might take place locally, or might be forwarded to a more appropriate computational nexus. We also have to take into account the fact that in the next 10 years, single-CPU machines will disappear. Specialized graphics controllers (possibly multi-CPU) will be the standard; symmetric multiprocessing of the "user" computation; specialized compression and protocol chips for the net and I/O interfaces. The year 2001 equivalent of the 80386 will have from 2 to 16 "standard" processors, along with some number of graphics and I/O processors (including DMA). Computational power may become more of a commodity, like electricity. People will add capability in kilo-MIP :-) chunks -- which may be simply an add-in board for your PC, or a whole new box. Add to this the notions being experimented with in OS's of process migration (and the even more interesting research being done on processes "bidding" for unused cycles in a computation market), and the lines drawn between "server" and "workstation" become too blurred to read. On the whole, I agree with Bruce about the continuous computation. Millions of objects will be continuously interacting with each other to form what we will think of as the computational society. Simulations of simplified models of this society will be essential to all service-providers in it -- and this means your local print server as well as businesses. Users will interact with the "real (computational) world" through some simulation/abstraction of its real, incredibly rich and dynamic, state. One will ask for a "document" object to be "printed", which will trigger a planning task which will in turn: o consider the type of the document o printing formats into which it might be rendered, o your probable location, o what kind of priority/urgency is probably meant, o what "print-service-providers" you have "frequent-print-user" bonus arrangements with :-) o whether some messenger service could get from the local Kinko's in reasonable time (because you like the document quality from that print-service-provider) o whether the local LaserWriter is out of paper (and if anyone is perceived as "in-the-act-of-reloading-the-paper-tray") and so on and so forth to build and execute a custom system all designed to give one a hardcopy form of the document. During the process, it will send messages to many other documents, which may in turn build and execute complex systems to respond appropriately to those messages. If you think this model is overblown, consider what happens when you say "ftp " to your shell... Bill -- Bill Janssen janssen@parc.xerox.com (415) 494-4763 Xerox Palo Alto Research Center 3333 Coyote Hill Road, Palo Alto, California 94304