Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!swrinde!ucsd!ucbvax!ATSUVAX1.BITNET!DAVISM
From: DAVISM@ATSUVAX1.BITNET ("Michael N. Davis")
Newsgroups: comp.society.futures
Subject: Future of Computer Jobs
Message-ID: <9102131606.AA12900@world.std.com>
Date: 13 Feb 91 15:04:00 GMT
Sender: daemon@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU
Organization: The Internet
Lines: 71

Hello to all you futurists out there,

I need some advice.  I'm at a point where I'm evaluating what direction
to point my computing skills.  The computing field is going to change so
much in just the next 5 years that's its difficult to see where one should
go.

One writer in Information Week magazine recently suggested that if
current trends continue, the PC increasing performance graph line will
cross the mainframe's increasing performance graph line in 1996.  That kind
of power on a desktop will provide the kind of performance needed for
real friendly software interfaces and operating systems that can be almost
totally managed by non-technical users.  With such friendly smart systems will
there be a need for system managers, systems analysts, programmer analysts,
operations staff, etc. in the general market place?  If the software is easy
enough and powerful enough to use, why would you need all those people.  I'm
a system manager for a large VAXcluster shop with 20GB of disk storage
supporting over 2000 users, but I can see the equipment in my computer
room shrinking 70% each time a machine is replaced.  Even now all the
things that the faculty and students do on our machines could be
done on PCs.  When a 486 tower can hold several 1GB disk drives now, what
does that say about my "big" computer center?

In trying to sort this out, I see computer jobs in the future shifting
into three areas: network management, training/support, and software
development companies.  Networks will continue to grow rapidly and will
need good people to manage them.  Users will need mostly training and
some guidance about setting up their data in accordance with a companies
needs, but I don't think they will need application developers per se
as the average user is becoming quite sophisticated in using computers
and software is becoming quite friendly.  (Those who can't
or won't compute will unfortunately be unable to keep
up with their peers.)  It seems to me that eventually only software
houses will be doing major programming/application development.  If you
want to do that kind of work then you will have to work for one of them,
but I think the general business market place will not need large amounts
of development people.  So what is going to happen to the computer job
market in the next ten years?  What area do you develop your skills in?
My current expertise will definitely be extinct in 10 years as the VAX will be
dead.  If PC application packages will be the thing in the next five
years which one do you choose to learn?  Today's database brand may
be tomorrow's dog in just a few years.  Though I have extensive experience
in relational systems (ORACLE DBA and developer, INGRES work, etc.) I
have no experience with object-oriented databases coming to the fore
now.

So the bottom line is what do I choose to do now to prepare for the future.
Have I missed any future job areas other than network management,
training/support, and software houses?  I'm kind of leaning toward
training/support.  At least in this kind of job you will be trained on
whatever latest package the company chooses thus keeping up with the latest
technology.  Network management would be technically interesting though
over the next ten years difficult as the technology matures.  The hassles
I have had in dealing with network vendors has been from frustrating to
the utter ridiculous.  This state of the art area is a total zoo not for the
faint-hearted.  Software development might be quite interesting but working
on one product line in one programming language might make you too focused
on one narrow area leaving you vulnerable should your product be replaced by
another company's more conceptually advanced product leaving you in the dust
with old concepts and possibly old programming techniques.

So futurists, I'm interested in what you think the future holds for computer
people and what you might advise one who doesn't quite want to become
extinct yet.

Thanks for your coming answers.


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Michael N. Davis, System Manager, NC A&T State University, Greensboro, NC 27411
BITNET: DAVISM@ATSUVAX1