Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!cs.utexas.edu!usc!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!magnus.ircc.ohio-state.edu!csn!alumni.colorado.edu!fozzard From: fozzard@alumni.colorado.edu (Richard Fozzard) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Future of Computer Jobs Message-ID: <1991Feb14.183920.16664@csn.org> Date: 14 Feb 91 18:39:20 GMT References: <9102131606.AA12900@world.std.com> Sender: news@csn.org (news) Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder Lines: 53 Nntp-Posting-Host: alumni.colorado.edu In article <9102131606.AA12900@world.std.com> DAVISM@ATSUVAX1.BITNET ("Michael N. Davis") writes: >I need some advice. I'm at a point where I'm evaluating what direction >to point my computing skills. The computing field is going to change so >much in just the next 5 years that's its difficult to see where one should >go. > I agree that there will be a shift in the sorts of skills that will be in demand. And I agree with most of your points, but have just a couple of disagreements. >totally managed by non-technical users. With such friendly smart systems will >there be a need for system managers, systems analysts, programmer analysts, >operations staff, etc. in the general market place? If the software is easy >enough and powerful enough to use, why would you need all those people. I'm > Sure, easier software allows a single manager to serve more users, but I think the number of active users is increasing far faster than the ability of system managers to support them. We certainly see that here at NOAA, where we are constantly replacing the old behemoths (Vaxes, etc.) with Suns and Macs. Even though the system management is easier, and more software is available off-the-shelf, we still are hiring system people and programmers like crazy. (Of course, these are Unix and Mac types, not the older, dying types such as VMS or DOS.) As people find they can do more with their machines, their demands simply become greater, consequently requiring greater support. >up with their peers.) It seems to me that eventually only software >houses will be doing major programming/application development. If you >want to do that kind of work then you will have to work for one of them, >but I think the general business market place will not need large amounts >of development people. So what is going to happen to the computer job As above, people's expectations will continue to rise. I believe that there will be GREATER demand for in-house development to do specific things that no generic software house can provide, even in the most feature-laden applications. In fact, even if they do provide it, a simpler in-house app with just the features needed is more likely to succeed. A recent (and long overdue) trend towards modularization and interapplication communication (Windows DDE, Apple IAC, NewWave, etc.) may actually create quite a demand for knowledgeable folks to actually assemble custom apps (actually "environments") from the right components. Another trend is the user-programmability seen in tools like HyperCard or ToolBook - another fast, simple way to develop in-house apps or info sources (same thing!?), that is (unfortunately) still just a bit too hard to use for the busy user. rich -- ======================================================================== Richard Fozzard "Serendipity empowers" Univ of Colorado/CIRES/NOAA R/E/FS 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303 fozzard@boulder.colorado.edu (303)497-6011 or 444-3168