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From: dnwiebe@cis.ohio-state.edu (Dan N Wiebe)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: Patriot Question
Message-ID: <1991Feb15.071447.11189@cbnews.att.com>
Date: 15 Feb 91 07:14:47 GMT
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From: dnwiebe@cis.ohio-state.edu (Dan N Wiebe)


Ramin Zabih writes:

>Does anyone know if these factors are responsible for the occasional SCUD
>damage?  How hard would it be to increase the warhead size, or to program
>it to achieve a direct hit?

	Well, I've got no access to classified information, but it seems
to me that the problem is one of physics rather than software or (Patriot)
warhead size.  The successful Patriot detonates at or near the incoming
Scud warhead, hopefully screwing up the fuzing system and maybe even
blowing the thing into a bunch of separate chunks.  But you've still got
a ton or so total of incoming missile that's been falling for 60 miles or
so and has a fair amount of kinetic energy--and since its path is completely
ballistic, having a Patriot create a nearby explosion is not going to
deflect it appreciably from its established path.  It's going to come pretty
much right on in, and when it hits, it'll make a fair-sized hole--or
several of them.  Also, the heat generated by the impact might be enough to
set off whatever explosive hasn't blown yet--and there will probably be
some, since from what I hear it's quite difficult to set off a bomb with a
well-designed fuzing system without satisfying the fuzing parameters.  That
is, if a bomb is fuzed to go off when it hits the ground, a good WHAP from
a nearby explosion probably isn't going to make it go off early.  However,
I'd estimate that the heat of impact after 60 miles of fall would be enough
to set off just about any chemical explosive, regardless of the fuzing
system.
	What do the rest of you think?

Dan Wiebe
dnw@rsch.oclc.org