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From: hrubin@pop.stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin)
Newsgroups: sci.bio
Subject: Re: Why bother? (was Re: Terraforming, sun shield)
Message-ID: <7860@mentor.cc.purdue.edu>
Date: 14 Mar 91 18:44:02 GMT
References: <1991Feb22.164032.16901@zoo.toronto.edu> <1991Mar13.091441.2840@desire.wright.edu>
Sender: news@mentor.cc.purdue.edu
Lines: 45

In article <1991Mar13.091441.2840@desire.wright.edu>, sbishop@desire.wright.edu writes:
> In article <64568@eerie.acsu.Buffalo.EDU>, arandia@acsu.buffalo.edu (joel d arandia) writes:
> > szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo) writes:
> > 
> >>As I pointed out previously, the human race will _not_ expand, because
> >>the natural equilibrium population growth rate with reliable birth control 
> >>is c. -50% per generation.  This is regardless of any technology except
> >>that related to radically reducing the costs of having children in terms of
> >>money and women's health.  

For one thing, we recently have acquired such technology, and are in the 
process of acquiring more.  For another, we can adopt taxation policies to
accomplish this; presumably a pioneering space colony would do so.

> > 	Why?  In the future, why would people only be allowed to have only 
> > 2 or less children?  Why not expand?  It's obvious that the earth's resources
> > are limited.  We can't keep 5 billion here forever.  I hope between now and 
> > forever, we'll have migrated into space.  What's this with conservation?
> > Expand!  Explore!  Exploit!  Come on!  The only way to go now is to go up!
> > The whole history of the human race is about expansion.  Why stop now?

Not only is this the history, this is essential humanity.

> Because at the rate we are increasing we will reach 10 billion in the very near
> future.  As it is, we are seriously straining the environment with FIVE
> billion.  The rain forest (the lungs of the world) is rapidly disappearing, the
> pollution in our cities is reaching crisis level and people are starving in
> many of the third world countries...  
> Migration to space is too far in the future and too limited to do any good.

About mass migration to space, I agree.  The population problem on earth will
not be even ameliorated by this.  

Unless there is something very drastic, at least as bad as a major plague or
a nuclear war, I see little hope for mankind restricted to earth having any
freedom whatever.  Nor can I see it doing anything other than stagnating.

I believe that mankind has a real future only if it is disunited, except
possibly if it encounters a direct enemy.  In unity there may be strength,
but not always; the disunited Greeks defeated the united Persians, and quite
possibly it was disunity and strife which brought them to that position.
--
Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399
Phone: (317)494-6054
hrubin@l.cc.purdue.edu (Internet, bitnet)   {purdue,pur-ee}!l.cc!hrubin(UUCP)