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From: szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Newsgroups: sci.bio
Subject: Re: Human Population Growth/Decline
Message-ID: <21418@crg5.UUCP>
Date: 26 Mar 91 15:56:17 GMT
References: <1991Feb22.164032.16901@zoo.toronto.edu> <1991Mar13.091441.2840@desire.wright.edu> <7860@mentor.cc.purdue.edu> <21376@crg5.UUCP> <1991Mar20.125112.2920@desire.wright.edu>
Reply-To: szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo)
Organization: Sequent Computer Systems, Inc
Lines: 29

In article <1991Mar20.125112.2920@desire.wright.edu> sbishop@desire.wright.edu writes:
>In article <21376@crg5.UUCP>, szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo) writes:
>> ....the actual equilibrium growth rate is 
>> closer to -50% per generation.  At this rate, assuming a generation time 
>> of 30 years and that lifespan increase reaches some limit,  population 
>> will reach 2.5 billion in 2110, 150 million in 2230, 16 million 
>> in 2320,....  Most human cultures will die out over this period.  
>> This assumes no cataclysm, such as nuclear or biological war.  
>> 
>
>What about all the third world countries where birth control is heavily
>fought by the religious sector which have their own agenda?  Or the latin
>American countries where it is 'macho' to father many children.

In nearly all countries, the birth rate has been declining over the last
10 or more years, as birth control is becoming more widely available.
Religions seems to be only temporarily delaying this process in some areas.
As birth control becomes more convenient and effective, the religious 
forces will lose out to women's choice, as they have in all developed
countries, including the Catholic countries of Italy and Spain which
already have birthrates below replacement levels.



-- 
Nick Szabo			szabo@sequent.com
"If you want oil, drill lots of wells" -- J. Paul Getty
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.