Xref: utzoo trial.talk.politics.peace:97 alt.activism:12480 alt.desert-storm:12416 Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rpi!uupsi!cmcl2!panix!mydog!gcf From: gcf@mydog.UUCP (Gordon Fitch) Newsgroups: trial.talk.politics.peace,alt.activism,alt.conspiracy,alt.desert-storm Subject: The Next War Summary: how to compute mean time to next war using your fingers, if you have any left after the last one Message-ID: <9103270659.7238@mydog.UUCP> Date: 27 Mar 91 06:59:26 EST Keywords: save your yellow ribbons Some have asked what I mean by "the next war." Victory always creates a thirst for more victory. When the current high wears off, it'll be time to look for another hit. Where? Here are some of the candidates: country pretext(s) ------- ------------------------------------------ Afghanistan control civil war Cambodia control civil war Colombia drug war; oppose revolution Cuba drug war; assist revolution El Salvador suppress revolution Iran oppose influence/intervention in Iraq Iraq II control civil war Libya terrorism; influence/intervention in Africa Peru drug war; oppose revolution Vietnam vengeance (Note also that if Kurdish success in Iraq leads to a Kurdish invasion / revolt in Turkey, NATO will probably be bound by treaty to intervene.) When? Defeat causes a considerable hiatus in the rhythm of American military adventures. Consider the following table, covering the period of the domination of American politics by the Military-Industrial-Academic complex: first last year year event result time until next war ---- ---- ----- --------- ------------------- 1941 1945 World War II victory 5 (1950) 1950 1953+ Korea standoff 12 (1965) 1965* 1973 Vietnam defeat 13 (1986) 1986 1986 Grenada victory! 4 (1990) 1990 1990 Panama victory!! 1 (1991) 1991 1991 Iraq victory!!! ? + most of the fighting took place in 1950 and 1951. * first year of admitted combat using U.S. troops. Inter- vention began earlier, but was ignored or concealed. The average time to war after a victory is three years and change (but note the trend!); after a less satisfactory outcome, 12 years and six months. Unopposed interventions and goofball excursions such as Lebanon I and II and the Rescue of the Iranian Hostages have not been included. There's also the matter of the 1992 election. His Excellency was slipping fast in the polls before the light in August. None of the pre-Gulf problems have really gone away. Will another little war be necessary to get the polls up again? -- Gordon Fitch | gcf@mydog.uucp | uunet!cmcl2.nyu.edu!panix!mydog!gcf