Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rpi!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!sdd.hp.com!spool.mu.edu!uwm.edu!lll-winken!sun-barr!newstop!sun!amdcad!amdcad!military From: jokim@jarthur.Claremont.edu (John H. Kim) Newsgroups: sci.military Subject: Re: Air losses in the Gulf Message-ID: <1991Apr5.092253.8585@amd.com> Date: 4 Apr 91 06:10:51 GMT Article-I.D.: amd.1991Apr5.092253.8585 References: <1991Apr4.042539.12947@amd.com> Sender: military@amd.com Organization: Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, CA 91711 Lines: 39 Approved: military@amd.com From: "John H. Kim" In article <1991Apr4.042539.12947@amd.com> ab3o+@andrew.cmu.edu (Allan Bourdius) writes: >5) The Iraqis were so stunned by the quick destruction of most of their >air defense systems that those that remained operational had operators >that feared turning on their radars because then they'd be attacked. I distinctly recall one reporter saying that the increased allied artillery fire just prior to the ground war had an extra bonus: Some of the Iraqi soldiers manning the air defenses mistook the artillery as the beginning of the ground war and turned on their radars to pick up the expected ground support aircraft. This was quickly followed by coalition bombs and HARMs. As for the accuracy of the Pentagon aircraft loss figures, I did a statistical analysis based on the POWs the Iraqis showed on TV. I've since deleted that analysis but here's the premise and result of it: Since the Pentagon released MIA names before the Iraqis showed the POWs on TV, any MIAs the Pentagon was keeping secret had a chance of showing up as a POW. All the POWs were on the MIA list, so I calculated the probability of this occurring if there actually were "secret" MIAs. The chances that the Pentagon was revealing only half the planes they lost was less than 1%. The chances that the Pentagon was revealing only 2 of every 3 planes lost was less than 5%. The two objections were: The Iraqis could be hiding such "secret" MIAs, which I dismissed because I couldn't think of any reason why they would want to do this. And the Pentagon could be withholding the names of any airmen whose planes went up in balls of fire and were definitely KIA. I recalled hearing somewhere that most pilots are able to bail out when their planes were hit, but I posted the question in sci.military. I never got a straight answer. -- John H. Kim | (This space to be filled when I jokim@jarthur.claremont.edu | think of something very clever uunet!jarthur!jokim | to use as a disclaimer)