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From: digex@world.std.com (doug e humphrey)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: Hi-Tech Scorecard (scuds vs. patriots)
Message-ID: <1991Apr9.030422.2420@amd.com>
Date: 7 Apr 91 05:53:52 GMT
References: <1991Apr5.091907.7913@amd.com> <1991Apr6.020949.14323@amd.com>
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From: digex@world.std.com (doug e humphrey)


It was asked, what is the cost of not intercepting them.  In truth,
there is no precise way to asnwer that question, because the monetary
part is most likely the least important.

One of the costs of not interception the Scuds would have been that 
the target countries, Israel and Saudi Arabia, *might* not have been 
able to persue the path that the United States found in the best 
overall interest.  Who can know what they would have done if the Scuds
were allowed to inpact?  Note that the one Scud that got in on the 
military barracks in Riyahd caused something like 30% of the combat 
casualties of the entire war.  If even 10% of the 40-odd Scuds managed
to do as well, then it would have well more than doubled, nearly tripled
the number of people lost.  Cost of human life, and cost of *terror* and
fear in the civilian populace are hard to quantify, which is why looking
at it from a dollar standpoint alone is not valid.

It pretty much goes without saying that Israel would not have been able
to stay out of the war if it were not for the Patriots.  All it would 
have taken would have been a couple more nicely placed (random chance)
hits and a few hundred civilians killed, and they would have had to 
act (I have had long talks about this with my CPA and his friends in
Baltimore, all of which are Israeli citizens and Israeli military, and
were getting packed to go over and join the fray if combat had broken
out).  

A few million bucks to knock a Scud down?  Who cares.  A lot of people
are quite happy enough that it was possible to take them down at all.

Doug Humphrey
Digital Express Group
Crypto Systems for the masses!

	[And that's enough on this topic; its drifting astray from
	 our technical charter. --CDR]