Xref: utzoo alt.activism.d:41 trial.talk.politics.peace:111
Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rpi!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!pacific.mps.ohio-state.edu!linac!midway!bdh
From: bdh@uchicago (Brian D. Howard)
Newsgroups: alt.activism.d,trial.talk.politics.peace
Subject: Re: Actually, Nine Percent Ain't Bad
Message-ID: <bdh.670791620@gsbsun>
Date: 4 Apr 91 19:00:20 GMT
References: <9104022229.11154@mydog.UUCP>
Sender: news@midway.uchicago.edu (News Administrator)
Organization: University of Chicago
Lines: 63

gcf@mydog.UUCP (Gordon Fitch) writes:

>Much has been made of the fact that, of people who were awake at
>all, 91% approved of Bush's handling of the Gulf crisis and 9%
>disapproved.  While I have a lot of doubt about these polls,
>let's assume that 9% is factual and represents three components:
>hard-core pacifists, the peace movement, and irreducible
>curmudgeons (those who disapprove of _everything_.)  And let's
>assume that the proportion of hard-core pacifists and
>curmudgeons remains about the same over a period of time.  I
>think this is a reasonable assumption because hard-core pacifism
>and irreducible curmudgeonry have little to do with outside events
>and conditions; they're internal and personal.

(Author takes statistic at end of 'victory' in highly covered 
war....)

>Now, during the war in Vietnam, the opposition was even smaller
>at its lowest point: 6% (in 1965).  I remember this well because
>it was so at variance with my own perceptions -- but that's
>another story.  Let's assume that this figure, too, is factual,
>or if it is non-factual it is non-factual in the same way as 
>"9%."  Now, if we assume that the proportion of the population 
>which consisted of hard-core pacifists or curmudgeons was the 
>same, then the peace movement has been growing rather rapidly.  
>In fact, the smaller you say the peace movement is, the faster 
>you say it's growing.  

(...And compares it to statistic at beginning (actually in middle) of
war covered only slightly better than Korea or WW-II...)

>For instance, let's say the constant element in the opposition
>to the appropriate war is 5%.  Although there are not many
>hard-core pacifists, it is certainly difficult to think that 
>fewer than one out of twenty is a curmudgeon, given what we
>see in daily life.  5% seems like a minimal figure.  If it is,  
>then the peace movement grew from 1% of the pollable 
>population to 4% in 26 years -- one generation.  If its 
>numbers increase fourfold in every generation, it will 
>represent 16% of the population 26 years from now and become 
>a majority in about 45 years.

>However, if you say that the constant element in the opposition
>to the war is 5.5% (it can't be more than 6%) then the peace
>movement went from 0.5% of the population in 1965 to 3.5% in
>1991, that is, increased sevenfold.  At this rate the peace
>movement will become a majority in 27 years.

(...and proceeds to make conclusion based on very dubious premises.)

>In other words, many of you now in your twenties or thirties
>have an excellent chance of seeing the dissolution of the War 
>Machine in your lifetime.  And you would not know this without 
>the public-relations victories of the War Machine's servitors 
>and sycophants.  Keep the faith.

Dream on.  I bet you are one of those who believe that urban legend
about gays being 10% of the population as well.  Why don't you simply
state your religious beliefs instead of pretending that they have any
statistical validity?  

--
"Hire the young while they still know everything."