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From: amichiel@rodan.acs.syr.edu (Allen J Michielsen)
Newsgroups: sci.military
Subject: Re: Hi-Tech Scorecard
Message-ID: <1991Apr12.055403.14605@amd.com>
Date: 11 Apr 91 13:42:54 GMT
References: <1991Apr5.091907.7913@amd.com> <1991Apr6.020929.14238@amd.com> <1991Apr10.024450.21206@amd.com>
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From: amichiel@rodan.acs.syr.edu (Allen J Michielsen)


   Now that the official war if over, much of the public media has turned
around and saying stuff like how bad the patriot really was.  A bunch of 
people have also come out of the woodwork to say how bad it was....  Things
like launch failures, uncontrolled flight (paths), hitting buildings...
   I have no problems believing that ALL of this is absolutely true. HOWEVER,
it is very unfair.  Essentially the patriot 'system' was intended for a point
defense.  This would mean using a battery (or 2) to defend a fairly small area
like a airport or (large-ish) munitions dump/store.  How it was generally
deployed in the gulf, due to political considerations and media reports. Was
nearly as a general air defense system.
   Funny but, throw a X-hundred pound(s) of scud in the air, then a Y-hundred
pound(s) of patriot in the air and the amount of missile 'parts' landing will
approach X+Y.  Besides that the momentum of X going A mph & Y going B mgh
will really help the large pieces to do crazy things like make gaping holes in
building...
   Besides that, with several missiles zooming around the speed of sound
towards a target (which under some conditions may not actually have been
acquired by the tracking system yet, or so I understand) and that target
disappears (either because it breaks up or is hit by another patriot).  I
wouldn't be surprised at all to see at minimum confusion of the tracking 
control system and have it either confuse the tops of buildings as targets or
not see them in time to avoid hitting them.  No matter what, in short order
they will run out of fuel and return to terra firma with great impressiveness.
   The patriot system was barely even fired before this war, and using it in
a city environment almost certainly was not something that was specifically
written into the spec sheets or tested.  Without a doubt, improvements to the
software and hardware of the system will be made from the experience gained
from this deployment.  With 20/20 hindsight, the cost of deployment (missiles
used, labor expended, and colateral damage) can be compare to a new estimated
potential damage estimate of the scuds, and it probably can be said that using
the patriots in israel cost more than they were worth.  This still doesn't
touch the real secondary value of the system.  Doubtless, it kept Isreal out
of the conflict, and provided a real defense for the chemical scud threat.

-- 
Al. Michielsen, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Syracuse University
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