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From: fcrary@lightning.Berkeley.EDU (Frank Crary)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: After Endeavour, what then?
Message-ID: <1991May7.020457.2898@agate.berkeley.edu>
Date: 7 May 91 02:04:57 GMT
References: <346.281f448d@mwk.uucp> <1991May6.170018.5455@iti.org>
Sender: root@agate.berkeley.edu (Charlie Root)
Organization: ucb
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While the shuttle was designed to have a 100 flight lifetime (as well
as fly 12 flights/year). However the Office of Technology Assessment
notes that this would require a reliability of 99.97%. If you assume
a more realistic reliability of 97.5% (one failure in 40 which is the
current total), an orbiter has a 50% chance of being lost by its 27th
flight.

				    Frank Crary
				    UC Berkeley