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From: fcrary@lightning.Berkeley.EDU (Frank Crary)
Newsgroups: sci.space.shuttle
Subject: Re: After Endeavour, what then?
Message-ID: <1991May15.210459.7408@agate.berkeley.edu>
Date: 15 May 91 21:04:59 GMT
References: <1991May8.092605.1@vf.jsc.nasa.gov> <1991May9.034143.16916@agate.berkeley.edu> <1991May13.170952.1@vf.jsc.nasa.gov>
Sender: root@agate.berkeley.edu (Charlie Root)
Organization: ucb
Lines: 12

In article <1991May13.170952.1@vf.jsc.nasa.gov> kent@vf.jsc.nasa.gov writes:
>The only think I see in your calculations is:
>
>You state the odds of all four vehicles surviving.  What is the odds of one
>vehicle surviving 80 flights?
>
The odds of one shuttle surviving 80 flights is (assuming 97.5% reliability)
6.58:1 against. E.g there is a 86.8% chance that a shuttle will be lost
before its 80th flight.

				     Frank Crary
				     UC Berkeley