Path: utzoo!utgpu!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!rpi!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!cis.ohio-state.edu!dsac.dla.mil!ntm1169
From: ntm1169@dsac.dla.mil (Mott Given)
Newsgroups: comp.ai
Subject: Re: How far can expert systems go
Keywords: expert sysems
Message-ID: <2948@dsac.dla.mil>
Date: 3 Jun 91 13:48:39 GMT
Organization: Defense Logistics Agency Systems Automation Center, Columbus
Lines: 48

From article <1991May31.221440.2980@cs.sfu.ca>, by edwin@fornax:
>      How far can expert systems go??
>   or,
>      What, potentially, can they accomplish??

        Their accomplishments can be significant.  Canon uses an expert system
to generate new ideas and designs in lenses design, and is able design lenses
10 times faster.  AI tools can be used in conventional programming instead
of languages like Cobol to speed up software development; eg.  American
Express developed an application in 6 months using IBM's Expert System
Environment (a mainframe expert system shell) instead of the 3 years it 
would have required with other languages.  NASA is using cooperating expert
systems for automated monitoring and diagnostics.  The Fusion Group (New York)
has created a network management application for a distributed network of
UNIX workstations.  Ultra-human (i.e. better than human) performance has been
achieved by expert systems in some domains by melding the knowledge of several
experts and using the expert system for guidance where there are so many
factors to be considered in the problem that it is easy even for an expert
to overlook some aspects of the optimal solution.   A good way for you to
get an overview of this is write to AI vendors and get their literature.  
Some vendors even have free newsletters:
?-consult(user).          (from Quintus Corp., 800-542-1283)
Aion Update               (from AION Corp. 312-380-8870)
ARTLines                  (from Inference Corp. 602-585-3066)
AI Interactions           (from Texas Instruments)
LUCID Moments             (from Lucid Inc. 415-329-8400)
NeuralWorks Connection    (from NeuralWare, 412-787-8222)
Software AE Bulletin      (from Software A & E, 703-276-7910)

>      Will they ever replace human experts??
>      Will they ever be trusted??
  Some references on these topics:
AI EXPERT, Nov. 1989,  Why expert systems fail
BYTE,  Jan. 1991, AI's identity crisis
IEEE Expert, Feb 1990, AI and expert systems myths, legends, and facts
IEEE Expert, June 1990,  Validating expert systems
IEEE Expert, June 1990,  Expert system security

"Implementing Japanese AI Techniques: Turning the Tables for a Winning
Strategy"    by Richard Greene
McGraw-Hill Publishing Co. (phone 800-2-MCGRAW), New York, 1990, 266 pages.


-- 
Mott Given @ Defense Logistics Agency Systems Automation Center,
             DSAC-TMP, Bldg. 27-1, P.O. Box 1605, Columbus, OH 43216-5002
INTERNET:  mgiven@dsac.dla.mil   UUCP: ...{osu-cis}!dsac!mgiven
Phone:  614-238-9431  AUTOVON: 850-9431   FAX: 614-238-9928 I speak for myself